For Daryl Morey, the 2025 NBA draft is a can’t-miss moment. As for the No. 3 pick? It’s eminently missable.

Daryl Morey has never done this before.

That’s a pretty incredible thing to say about a guy who has spent the last 18 years as a chief personnel executive. Spend two decades in any line of work and you won‘t find much that surprises you. That’s especially true of the most important parts of the job. Yet, here is Morey, getting ready to make a franchise-defining draft pick in a slot where All-Stars are expected and MVPs are possible … and he’s never done anything remotely close to it.

It’s remarkable to think that an 18-year personnel man has never drafted a player inside the top 10. But it’s true. During Morey’s years in Houston, the Rockets’ highest pick came at No. 12 in 2012 (they selected Jeremy Lamb and traded him to the Thunder). Here in Philly, he has never drafted higher than 16th.

» READ MORE: Inside the ‘roller-coaster’ NBA draft lottery room, where three was the Sixers’ lucky number

The second half of the first round is a whole different ballgame from the top 5. Morey’s track record in that realm is better than his reputation suggests. Tyrese Maxey (No. 21) was a home run. Jared McCain (No. 16) is looking like one, too.

Morey’s picks with the Rockets included Clint Capela (No. 25), Marcus Morris (No. 14), Patrick Patterson (No. 14), Isaiah Hartenstein (No. 43), and Montrezl Harrell (No. 32). Not superstars, but solid NBA players who outperformed their draft slot. Outside of Morris at No. 14 over Kawhi Leonard, Tobias Harris, and Jimmy Butler in 2011, you don‘t see a whole lot of missed opportunities.

But, again, the later you land on in a draft, the fewer opportunities there are to miss.

You only need to look at the list of players drafted at No. 3 to understand the stakes.

Luka Doncić. Jayson Tatum. Jaylen Brown. James Harden. And, yes, Joel Embiid.

That’s five of the last 16 picks who have either won the regular season MVP, Finals MVP, or conference finals MVP.

Two of the last four picks at No. 3 — Evan Mobley (Cavs) and Jabari Smith Jr. (Rockets) — are young starters on upwardly mobile teams. Bradley Beal was the No. 3 pick in 2012.

The numbers say the Sixers have a 50% chance of drafting an All-Star and a 25% chance at drafting a franchise centerpiece. It is a massive opportunity.

» READ MORE: If Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper are off the board, Ace Bailey is the Sixers’ best option

Just as massive is the variance in potential outcomes. Look again at that list of the last 16 picks at No. 3. Along with the MVPs and the All-Stars you have RJ Barrett, and Jahlil Okafor, and Otto Porter Jr., and Enes Kanter. Last year, the Rockets used the third pick on Reed Sheppard, who played a total of 654 minutes as a rookie. Scoot Henderson, the No. 3 pick in 2023, came off the bench for the Blazers last season.

In other words, you are more likely to end up with one of those “other guys” than an MVP. At least, according to our sample.

Reality is, every draft is different, and the Sixers happen to find themselves picking in one that could go down as one of the better ones, according to the experts. But there is very little certainty outside of generational talent Cooper Flagg at No. 1. He is as can‘t-miss as it gets. While there is less consensus at No. 2, Rutgers guard Dylan Harper is widely regarded as the second-best player in the draft. The bigger question might be who selects Harper: the Spurs currently sit at No. 2, but they already have a trio of guards in De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, and Stephon Castle. If the Sixers can move up a spot to draft Harper, they should, and then they should deal with the McCain-Maxey question later. More likely, a team like the Jazz, brimming with assets and picking fifth, would end up leapfrogging the Sixers.

As for No. 3? It is eminently missable, and mess-uppable. The scouts are raving about 6-foot-10 Ace Bailey, fresh off an underwhelming season for an underperforming Rutgers team. The conundrum: If Bailey and Harper, his college teammate, are both legitimate top-three NBA draft picks, how did their college team finish under .500? Kind of answers itself, doesn‘t it?

Rather than drafting Bailey and hope it goes better than Ben Simmons, the Sixers would be better off finding some other team that believes in him and soliciting an offer they can‘t refuse. Trade down with the Wizards, or the Hornets, or somebody else who will give them future assets to offset the risk they’ll incur by drafting a Tre Johnson (Texas) or Kon Knueppel (Duke).

» READ MORE: Is Dylan Harper the next Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz, or Anthony Edwards? A Sixers draft puzzle.

The Sixers need to give themselves the best possible chance of having something to show for their stroke of luck. This is a legacy pick for Morey. Good luck, kid.