Trade deadline will be a dangerous place for Phillies as they look to upgrade their bullpen

Last year’s trade deadline should haunt Dave Dombrowski. Not because of anything he did, but because of what he didn’t. Because he couldn’t.

Eggs, framing lumber, and late-inning relievers. They’ve all been on the same price curve the last few years. Is it possible to remake a bullpen at the trade deadline? Sure, it’s possible. Is it advisable? That’s the real question.

Look at what the San Diego Padres did last July. Imagine the Phillies doing the same thing this July. Tanner Scott and Jason Adam combined for 29 outs in the Padres’ seven postseason games. They struck out 13 of the 37 batters they faced and allowed just two runs. Both were acquired at the trade deadline, along with middle reliever Bryan Hoeing.

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It’s a tantalizing thought. As unreliable as the Phillies bullpen has been, as big of a liability as it is today, think about what it would look like with arms the caliber of Scott and Adam. With a shutdown duo manning the eighth and the ninth, Rob Thomson would have Matt Strahm, Jordan Romano, Orion Kerkering, and Tanner Banks to mix and match in the bridge innings.

Two obvious questions:

You may not like the answers.

In the aftermath of last year’s deadline, Dombrowski made some remarks on the high cost of doing business. There’s no reason to think those costs will go down this season.

The Padres traded away a couple of Top 100 prospects to secure Adam and Scott, plus two more of their top five prospects. While Adam is still in San Diego, Scott left via free agency, signing with the Dodgers.

Let’s pretend for a moment that the Phillies could guarantee themselves the exact production the Padres got out of Adam and Scott. Let’s also pretend that Andrew Painter and Aidan Miller are off the table in any trade. None of the prospects that the Padres traded were on that level. We’ll also remove from consideration Aroon Escobar and Eduardo Tait. Suppose it took three or four of the following players to get the necessary deals done: Moisés Chace, Jean Cabrera, Justin Crawford, Griffin Burkholder, Dante Nori, Bryan Rincon, Mick Abel, Gabriel Rincones Jr.

Prices were high last trade deadline. Dombrowski said so himself after the Phillies settled for Carlos Estévez and Austin Hays. There’s no reason to think prices are going down.

As of Sunday, 22 of the 30 teams in the majors were within three games of a Wild Card spot. Two of the eight teams on the outside looking in are the Braves and Orioles, neither of whom is in rebuilding mode. Things will change between now and Aug. 1. But one thing is clear: the expanded playoff field has created a world where traditional sellers now have reason to at least stand pat, if not buy themselves.

The supply side effects are particularly acute this year. A couple of months ago, we would have named Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley as one of the prime candidates to target at the trade deadline.

But the Cardinals are 37-35 heading into Monday, three games out of the final wild card spot.

Likewise with the Red Sox. Aroldis Chapman is again pitching like a potential postseason difference maker: 12 saves, a 1.55 ERA, 12.1 strikeouts per nine, 2.8 walks per nine. On paper, Boston isn’t a serious contender. Then again, on paper, Boston is a half-game out of the Wild Card despite a 37-36 record. They have a Cy Young caliber Game 1 starter in Garrett Crochet and a deep bullpen. Could they really justify selling?

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Beyond Helsey and Chapman, the pickings get slim.

The Pirates have no shame, which means their late-innings tandem of David Bednar and Dennis Santana would be available for the right price. But, then, both are under contract through 2026. Which means the Pirates have the leverage to ask Dombrowski to meet their price.

Bednar’s numbers might warrant the price being met. Since returning from a remedial demotion to Triple-A, the former Lafayette star has a 2.38 ERA and nine saves with 32 strikeouts and three walks in 22⅔ innings. But, well, he was demoted to Triple-A for a reason. This is the second straight year he lost his closer’s job. Last year, he posted a 6.75 ERA after the All-Star Break.

Pete Fairbanks? The Rays closer has saved 61 games over the last three seasons. But the peripherals are alarming. His strikeouts-per-nine have plummeted from 13.5 to 8.7 to 7.9 in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. He is walking 4.4 batters per nine innings this season. He has never logged more than 45⅓ innings in a season. Hard pass.

Kyle Finnegan? The Nationals closer profiles as a poor man’s Estevez. Make of that what you will. A strike-thrower who keeps the ball on the ground and will get you through an inning more often than not. He is also one of the more durable arms in the majors, with four straight seasons of 60+ appearances and 60+ innings.

A big red flag: he is a different pitcher away from the spacious confines of Nationals Park, with 12 home runs in 65 innings on the road in 2023 and 2024. The splits haven’t been as extreme this season, but he has only pitched in 12 road games, with most of those coming in pitcher’s parks or against bad teams or both. He’s only pitched four clean innings this season.

Long story short, there is a shortage of plug-and-play relievers who might be worth a little gratuitous spending. That could change in the coming weeks. But, even if it does, they will come at a cost that the Phillies will need to think long and hard about matching.