Phillies must re-sign Kyle Schwarber to maintain his partnership with Bryce Harper in the Wheeler Window

In the Phillies’ universe, the Wheeler Window is the only denominator that matters.

When ace Zack Wheeler signed an extension last March that runs through 2027, he said that he would retire when the contract expires. He’ll be 37, he’ll have 13 years of service, he’ll be a likely Hall of Famer, and his four kids will be entering their most active phase of childhood.

That means the Phillies have a two-year window beyond this season, at the end of which the contract of Kyle Schwarber expires.

Which is the most important thing in the Phillies’ universe today.

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The Phillies have made the playoffs the last three seasons in a row. They made the playoffs at least three years straight only twice before; from 1976-78, with Mike Schmidt and Steve Carlton, then from 2007-11, when Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Cole Hamels formed the foundation.

This gilded era of Phillies baseball has been mainly authored by Bryce Harper, whose presence attracted both Wheeler and Schwarber, who turned out to be his chief lieutenants. There have been others — Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Taijuan Walker — who largely have proved mostly coincidental and patently overpaid. You can argue the merits of catcher J.T. Realmuto, who is the pitching staff’s unquestioned sensei, and No. 2 starter Aaron Nola, who currently is injured, but there are three core players who have made the Phillies consistent contenders: Wheeler, Schwarber, and Harper.

Which is why the Phillies have no choice but to re-sign Schwarber.

He can name his price. He can name his years. He can hit the market, bring back the best offer, and the Phillies will have to match. He is utterly irreplaceable.

He’s hit 167 homers in three-plus seasons, and he’s on pace for a career-best 55 homers this season, and he’s gotten better, arguably, each of his four seasons as a Phillie. He’s got a 1.087 OPS so far in July, which goes a long way to compensate for a horrible bullpen.

This matters because Schwarber somehow seems even older than his 32 years, perhaps because his Babe Ruth power matches his Babe Ruth running style. Turner and Harper are 32, too.

This goes beyond mere production. Far beyond.

Schwarbs is the team’s spokesman. He’s the leader. The captain. He replaced Rhys Hoskins in the role when the Phillies let Hoss walk two years ago, and he’s done wonderfully. He takes the burden off Harper’s superstar shoulders. He is kind and helpful to everyone, he’s reflective in moments of adversity, he’s accountable when it’s time for reckoning.

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He’s a mensch. How do you put a price tag on mensch?

When Hoskins left, Schwarber was his obvious replacement. There is no obvious replacement.

This was not the Phillies’ plan. The plan went like this:

The Phillies signed Schwarber and Castellanos in 2022. They gave Schwarber four years and $79 million, Castellanos five and $100 million. At that point they’d seen Alec Bohm play 159 games over the previous two seasons. Bohm was the third overall pick in 2018, and in 2019 he hit 23 home runs outside of the majors. The COVID shutdown cost Bohm his 2020 minor-league season, but a .338 average and four homers in 44 games with the major-league team that year gave them reason to believe he would fill out his 6-foot-5 frame with major power numbers. When that frame filled out, he’d be able to replace Schwarber’s power in the lineup.

The frame filled out, but Bohm has just 56 home runs since Schwarber signed. He’s never hit more than 20, despite the protection of Harper, Schwarber, Turner, Castellanos, and Realmuto. He’s a solid hitter and a fine third baseman, but the power just isn’t going to happen within the Wheeler Window.

That’s one reason the Phillies need Schwarber.

They also need him because Castellanos has been a disappointment. His OPS in the six years before he came to Philadelphia was .853, which made his $100 million contract seem like a bargain.

Castellanos’ OPS in three-plus seasons as a Phillie is .745. By comparison, Bohm’s OPS in the same period is also .745.

There’s no blame to be cast here. Sometimes plans work out. Sometimes they don’t.

The Phillies didn’t expect Bohm to plateau, and they didn’t expect Castellanos to crash.

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Likewise, they didn’t expect Schwarber to hit more home runs in less than four seasons as a Phillie than he’d hit in his first seven seasons combined. Schwarber and Harper have become the Phillies’ Canseco and McGwire, their Biggio and Bagwell, their Bonds and Kent.

What would it take to re-sign Schwarber? Well, the best full-time designated hitters make about $20 million a year, according to Spotrac; Schwarber is No. 1, at $19.7 million. Would four years and $100 million keep him in the Delaware Valley? Five years, $150 million?

He can name his price. Realistically, who could the Phillies acquire to replace him? There’s no one on the trade market who comes close to what and who he is who also is under team control through the Wheeler Window. Besides, they need a reliever.

Cubs right fielder Kyle Tucker is looking at a $600 million payday, for which the Phillies likely have no appetite.

Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is certain to opt out of his second season, but that would mean Harper and his surgically-repaired elbow might have to move back from first base to the outfield, and Alonso, who will be 31 and coming off his fourth straight All-Star season, is probably looking at something north of $300 million. In Turner and Harper, the Phillies already have two 30-somethings who will make at least $300 million.

Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman, who will be 32 next season, is expected to opt out of the final two years and $80 million left on his deal and no doubt will be looking for five years of security at more than $40 million per.

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None will bring the leadership, the emotional intelligence, or the chemistry Schwarber delivers.

The team needs contributions from everywhere — continued excellence from the rotation, a better bullpen, more offense from Bohm when he returns from his rib injury, maybe even adding short-term power at the deadline Thursday — but keeping Schwarber and Harper joined at the hip for the next two seasons is absolutely crucial.

They are the Phillies’ best shot at winning while Wheeler stands at the prow of the ship.

Forget the prospects, forget the overpaid vets, forget this year’s toothless trade deadline. This trio is all that really matters.