NOAA sees another active hurricane season and says Trump cuts won’t hurt forecasting

In line with earlier outlooks, NOAA officials say they expect another active Atlantic hurricane season. And without directly addressing NOAA staff reductions by President Donald Trump’s administration, they suggested the cuts would not affect the quality of forecasting.

The National Hurricane Center “is fully staffed, and we’re ready to go,” Laura Grimm, acting director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said Wednesday at a media briefing in Gretna, La., not far from where devastating Hurricane Katrina made landfall 20 years ago.

NOAA called for the formation of 13 to 19 named tropical storms — those with winds of 39 mph or higher — with six to 10 of those becoming hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or greater, and three to five of those “major” hurricanes, with peak winds of at least 111 mph.

The long-term averages are 14 for named storms; seven for hurricanes; and three for major hurricanes.

The NOAA outlook tracked closely with those issued earlier by AccuWeather Inc., the Weather Channel, WeatherBell Analytics, and the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Department.

Neither Grimm nor Ken Graham, head of the National Weather Service, which is part of NOAA along with the hurricane center, mentioned the administration’s cuts in their introductory remarks or in response to reporters’ questions, instead championing advances in computer models and observation systems.

Graham said that during a hurricane threat, the agency would make sure that forecast offices “have the resources they need to make sure every warning goes out.”

» READ MORE: What the National Weather Service cuts may mean for forecasting on the verge of severe-storm season

According to the outlook, the threats may be plentiful.

“Everything is in place for an above-average season,” Graham said.

Graham deflected questions about threats to specific locations. NOAA does not venture guesses on how many storms would make landfall in the United States or elsewhere.

Yet again, a major player will be unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the hurricane-formation regions of the Atlantic, NOAA forecasters said.

In addition to climate change, the oceanic warmth evidently is tied to oceanic circulation and cleaner air, Hiroyuki Murakami, a scientist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, said this week.

He estimated that about 10% of the warming in the North Atlantic has resulted from the absence of polluting aerosols, allowing more of the sun’s radiation to warm the sea.

That said, the warmth in the Atlantic is not quite as robust as it was last year, said Philip Klotzbach, chief forecaster at Colorado State.

The weather.com outlook observed that the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, which are part of the Atlantic Basin, are warmer than average “but cooler than they were this time last year.”

Graham said climate change does not appear to be affecting hurricane numbers.

An “active” tropical-storm era that began in 1995 continues, said Matt Rosencrans, the scientist who produced the NOAA forecast. Historically, active and relative lull periods have alternated in 25- to 40-year cycles. It is not known when the active era might end, nor is it certain that a lull would follow, given the worldwide warming.

What does appear certain is that warming is enhancing tropical storm rainfall amounts. “We’re seeing heavier rates,” Graham said, adding that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture.

A case in point would be Hurricane Helene, during which up to 10.25 inches of rain was measured in North Carolina. (That’s the water equivalent of about 120 inches of snow.)

The outlooks have shown skill in terms of predicting hurricane and tropical storm numbers. However, predicting landfalls and impacts remains very much a work in progress.

Last season was an active and destructive one, with Helene blamed for more than 200 deaths in the United States, primarily from inland flooding in the Southeast.

All the outlooks foresaw a hyperactive season, citing the potential La Niña cooling of waters in the tropical Pacific, which would favor storm formation in the warm Atlantic Basin. However, La Niña never quite materialized during the hurricane season.

Some were on the high side for tropical storms, with the Weather Channel predicting 25 of them. The actual number was 19.

But the Weather Channel and Colorado State correctly predicted the hurricane total, 11, in their preseason outlooks. And that number was within the ranges predicted by NOAA and AccuWeather.