Rains persist in Philly, so do the drought conditions. Strong storms are possible Friday.
The likeliest time for severe storms would be between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., the weather service says.
Only halfway through the month, Thursday marked the 10th May day in which it has rained in Philly, and chances are excellent the number will reach 12 this weekend.
“Severe” thunderstorms, those with winds approaching 60 mph, are possible Friday morning into early afternoon, the National Weather Service says. Encores may follow on Saturday.
But as pesky — in some places more than pesky — and persistent as the showers have been, they haven’t matched the drought conditions for persistence.
The weekly interagency U.S. Drought Monitor map posted Thursday morning did not improve much for the Philly region from last week’s, with about half the region in “severe drought,” and most of it at least “abnormally dry.”
That’s despite rain totals of 2 and 3 inches in parts of the region this week. “Some got hit pretty good,” said Mike Gorse, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Mount Holly who was tracking the totals.
Rains may have been a factor in the death of a 36-year-old contract worker who fell into a river in South Jersey. The man had lost his footing and fallen into the swiftly moving waters of Big Timber Creek in Westville shortly before 1:30 p.m. Wednesday.
So why is the region still in drought?
Drought isn’t the stuff of Netflix. It comes on gradually and almost always ends reluctantly.
No mandatory restrictions are in place, and no region-wide major drought has occurred around here in over 20 years. But advisories remain in effect in both New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
The so-called salt line — the boundary in the Delaware River between fresh water and the oceanic that can threaten drinking water — was south of normal as of Monday. And that was before the heavy rains came.
And despite all the rains around this week, it is likely that those “abnormally dry” designations will keep appearing on the weekly Drought Monitor maps.
The region is still recovering from the record-dry conditions of September and October, the first month in Philly records dating to 1872 in which no measurable rain was observed at the official measuring station.
While precipitation totals rebounded at the end of 2024, through Wednesday Philly and its seven neighboring counties were running 15% to 25% deficits so far this year, according to the weather service’s Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center, which uses a sampling of measuring stations in each county.
The outlook for the rest of the week
As of Thursday, just under 2 inches of rain had been measured in Philly in May, well above normal for the month so far. That total likely will grow.
The forecast called for more shower chances Thursday night, becoming more likely Friday and Saturday.
The fog that shrouded the region Thursday morning may make a reappearance on Friday morning, the weather service says, and the likeliest window for the stronger storms would be between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center listed a 15% chance of storms reaching severe criteria for wind on both Friday and Saturday, with highs near 80 degrees Friday and into the 80s Saturday.
Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, primary-election day, should be dry, with about an 80% likelihood of sun all three days.