Wind gusts to 60 mph are possible Sunday in Philly. Significant snow possible midweek

After the Philadelphia region gets a decent dose of something that has been scarce this winter — rain — winds could gust to 60 mph Sunday and persist into Monday afternoon, the National Weather Service is warning, with power outages likely. A high-wind warning is in effect.

Then, Wednesday night into Thursday, the region may get something else that generally has been lacking this winter in Philly — snow.

With some of the global computer model runs showing “big totals” from a potential coastal storm, said Eric Hoeflich, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, the office already has entered rumor-control mode.

Computer models have been known to heap virtual snow as quickly as they lose it, and for now forecasters are relegating the threat to the department of speculation. But, yes, snow talk almost certainly will be in the air this week, even if flakes are not.

What isn’t in question is that the region is in for a potentially dangerous, long-duration siege of wind, and an adventurous few days.

Rain amounts may vary, given that thunderstorms — uncommon in February — are possible during the day Sunday as temperatures rocket toward 60.

By the time the rains back off, likely sometime Sunday afternoon, from 1 to 2 inches will have fallen across the region, amounts that have not been seen since November. All of Southeastern Pennsylvania, South Jersey, and Delaware remain under “severe” to “extreme” drought, according to the interagency U.S. Drought Monitor.

“It’s been a while,” John Feerick, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc., said of the rain. “Certainly it will be somewhat beneficial.”

Any flood threat is minimal, given the persistent dryness and that fog a few days ago that resembled so many snow-eating ghosts consuming the remnants of the snow cover.

The National Weather Service wind warning goes into effect at 10 a.m. Sunday and continues to 6 p.m. Monday. Steady winds of 25 to 40 mph are forecast, with gusts to 60 mph.

The weather service says power outages are “likely.” AccuWeather’s Feerick said the winds also might cause some “minor damage.”

A cold front crashing through Sunday afternoon is going to send temperatures tumbling to below freezing by daybreak Monday, when daytime readings won’t get above the mid-30s, and they may not see 30 on Tuesday or Wednesday, when the next storm is due to approach.

“We‘re getting a lot of questions, a lot of calls,” Hoeflich said. “We’re trying to get some rumor control out there.”

To that end, the weather service took the unusual step of posting a graphic on social media late Friday afternoon that showed the percentage chances of certain snow amounts, very much subject to change.

It listed a better than 60% probability of 4 inches or more, and about a 25% chance of a foot-plus. Traditionally, these analyses have been for “internal” use, Hoeflich said, but the agency has been encouraging making them more publicly available.

The official weather service forecast posted Saturday night had a 60% likelihood of snow Wednesday night into Thursday.

Feerick said that computer guidance has been showing the heavier amounts for areas to the south and east of Philly, which has been a trend this winter.

Philly’s seasonal total stands at 8.0, about half of normal. The Baltimore-Washington corridor and the Jersey Shore have had several inches more, as have areas to the north.

“We’ve definitely been in a snow hole,” said Ray Martin, a lead meteorologist in Mount Holly.

“Maybe it will close, maybe it won’t.”