Phillies outfield prospect Justin Crawford is on a track to the majors. Could it be in 2025?

About two weeks ago, at the Phillies’ end-of-season press conference, Dave Dombrowski was asked about the young talent in his organization and how it would impact his decision making. The president of baseball operations mentioned infielder Aidan Miller and pitching prospect Andrew Painter, but he also made a point of highlighting 20-year-old outfielder Justin Crawford.

“Crawford is coming very fast,” Dombrowski said Oct. 15. “I’m not sure that [when] we go into spring training, we’re going to count on him being one of our big-league starting outfielders, but he has a lot of ability. It wouldn’t surprise me if he came in at any time.”

It’s hard to blame him. Crawford, who is ranked as the Phillies’ No. 3 prospect by MLB Pipeline, has made big strides this year. He started his 2024 season at high-A Jersey Shore and ran into a cold spell in mid-May. But he did not panic. Instead, he connected with minor-league hitting coordinator Jake Elmore. Crawford had been noticeably wider in his stance, so they talked about not getting overextended with his lower half.

It was a small adjustment, but it helped. Before long, Crawford was back to his normal self. He went 41-for-126 from June 1 to July 11, and was promoted on July 19 to double-A Reading, where he continued to find success.

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He hit .333/.380/.455 with an .835 OPS over 40 games with the Reading Fightin’ Phils. He dropped his strikeout rate from 20.2% in high A, to 16.1% in double A, and finished his year leading all Phillies minor leaguers in hits, with 143, and stolen bases, with 42.

Crawford has his weak spots, but he has made progress in those areas, too. His ground ball rate of 69.7% in 2023 was the second-highest in minor-league baseball, but he trimmed it to 60.9% in 2024.

He raised his fly-ball rate by about seven points and his line-drive rate by about two points this season. He finished his year with nine home runs.

“He’s consistently looking to hit the ball harder, on a line more,” said Preston Mattingly, the Phillies’ assistant general manager, player development. “And I think he’s done that this year. When he does that, he’s going to get to more power. It’s not a quick fix overnight, where we make this change, and all of a sudden he starts hitting fly balls.

“I think we’re taking the long-term approach. Chip away and hit more balls on the line, which is going to lead to catching more balls out in front. Which could mean more balls in the gap, which, obviously, with his speed, turns into doubles and triples. And honestly, this year, you saw some of the power he got to as well.”

This doesn’t mean that Crawford won’t make adjustments. His bat path is quite flat, which makes it hard for him to reach pitches that move down (like sinkers and off-speedd offerings). But he is seeing results. So for now, the Phillies don’t see anything to fix.

“Nine times out of 10, maybe more, if a guy has a flat path, he’s going to make a lot of contact and probably hit above-average ground balls,” Elmore said. “And that’s kind of what we see in him. But with Justin, everything’s a balance, right? Like it is with every player.

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“Because of his speed, it’s more beneficial for him to hit the ball on the ground than Rhys Hoskins or Pete Alonso. So are we going in and overhauling the swing on a guy hitting .330? No, we’re not. We see things that maybe in the future might be worth having conversations over, but we’re not [having them now].

“Yes, he does have a fairly flat path, as do a lot of contact hitters, like Luis Arraez. There are a lot of guys who swing the bat really flat, and if you swing it flat, usually your contact rate is really good, which Justin’s is.”

Elmore believes that time will tell if a change needs to be made. He uses former NFL quarterback Philip Rivers as an example of this.

“When Rivers was coming out of college, his throwing motion was really bad, short arm, but he’s always had success,” Elmore said. “So, in my opinion, it would be dumb for a quarterback coach to go in and say, ‘Hey, we got to change your throwing motion.’

“And just like with every player, if someone succeeds to the point where they’re at the top in their respective league, you let them go on their own, to an extent, until they prove it doesn’t work. Because there’s an outlier to every situation.”

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For now, the biggest focus for Crawford is pitch selection. He has homed in on his “damage zones,” as Elmore calls them, and has tried to hold off on swinging at pitches that will induce ground balls.

It’s been a big part of his success this year, and will continue to be a focus moving forward. The pitching Crawford faces will only get more difficult from here. The key will be holding his zone.

“When the ball is elevated, it’s easier to hit it on a line,” Elmore said. “And balls that are diving toward the lower half of the zone, whether it be a slider, splitter, change, or a sinker, those balls are a lot harder to elevate. So Justin sees a lot of success when he gets the ball up in the zone.

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“And that’s been some of the messaging to him. I’d rather you chase a pitch up than a ball down. Because something really good can happen up. Even if you chase and swing at a pitch out of the zone, and swing and miss, I’m OK with that swing and miss, as opposed to a slider down out of the zone. Because now, not only are we missing, but we’re chasing near a zone that we don’t do damage in.”