The Phillies have to get creative to improve. That includes their hitters’ approach. Is that realistic?
With a payroll that is again expected to exceed exceeded the second tier of the luxury tax, the Phillies must get more from the players they already have.
Of all the words that spilled out of Dave Dombrowski’s mouth — and there were a lot — during this week’s 45-minute end-of-the-season news conference, eight stood apart from the rest.
“Sometimes you trade good players for good players.”
The Phillies may trade a good player this winter. This is Dombrowski, after all, calling the shots. He once dealt Prince Fielder — with seven years and $168 million remaining on his contract — for Ian Kinsler. “Untouchable” isn’t part of his vocabulary.
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And the Phillies have backslid in consecutive Octobers, from a magical sprint to Game 6 of the World Series in 2022, to Game 7 of the NL Championship Series last year and Game 4 of the divisional round against the Mets last week.
Chalk it up, if you’d like, to the randomness of a short playoff series. The Phillies did win 95 games, up from 90 last season and 87 in 2022. When Dombrowski says the roster, as constituted, “is capable of winning a world championship,” he isn’t wrong.
It’s his job, though, to make improvements. Seven times, he described the Phillies as “open-minded” to moves that may give them a better chance of winning it all with this core before ace Zack Wheeler’s contract expires in three years. So, after they ran it back last offseason, changes are more likely now.
But there are also roster realities that will require creativity to make more than a few tweaks on the margins. The Phillies have $220.5 million tied up in 2025 commitments to a catcher (J.T. Realmuto), first baseman (Bryce Harper), shortstop (Trea Turner), right fielder (Nick Castellanos), designated hitter (Kyle Schwarber), and six pitchers (starters Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, and Taijuan Walker; relievers José Alvarado and Matt Strahm). Nine others, including third baseman Alec Bohm, second baseman Bryson Stott, and outfielder Brandon Marsh, are eligible for salary arbitration.
Nothing in baseball is set in stone. But rather than jotting the Phillies’ lineup on a card, manager Rob Thomson might as well carve it on a slab.
It’s no wonder, then, that Dombrowski and Thomson reemphasized the need for players on the existing roster to get better. In particular, they again challenged several veteran hitters to make adjustments. Because it’s presumably easier to change hitters’ plate approaches than to add and subtract from an inflexible roster.
Last year, after the Diamondbacks exploited Castellanos, Turner, and other aggressive hitters in the NLCS, the Phillies focused on reducing the rate at which they swung at pitches out of the strike zone. Some adapted better than others. Overall, the Phillies shaved their chase rate from 31.3% last season to 30.3%, still worse than league average (28.5%).
The message this year: “I’d really like us to use the whole field a little bit more at times,” Dombrowski said. “We become a pull-oriented club at times too much for me. In the postseason, when you look at it, a lot of our hits didn’t come the opposite way, and that’s something we’ve already talked about.”
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Added Thomson: “We really have to get them to buy into using the entire field. Just doing that will cut down on chase rate because you’re going to stay on the ball a little bit longer.”
Swell. But is it realistic to get experienced hitters to change their ways? And who could stand to benefit the most from an altered approach?
Follow the leader
After last season, Schwarber tried to figure out why his average slid to .197, third-worst among 245 hitters who qualified for the batting title.
One explanation: He pulled more balls than any hitter in the majors.
“I just got into some bad habits,” said Schwarber, who noted a 52.5% pull rate last season, well above his 44.4% career mark. “When you’re going out there every day, you’re trying to make changes, but really, you’re just trying to compete. At the end of the day, you can’t be thinking, ‘Try to go opposite field.’ I’m just trying to hit the ball and try to make good contact.”
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Schwarber used the offseason for adjustments. He did drills with a tee to stop from spinning out and yanking every pitch to right field. He reinforced those mechanics in spring training and stuck with them during the season.
The result: Schwarber reduced his pull rate to 48.4%, batted .300 against lefties (up from .188 in 2023), and hiked his overall average by 51 points. He even trimmed his strikeout rate from 29.9% to 28.5%, all while sacrificing only minimal power. Although his home run total dipped from 47 to 38, his slugging percentage ticked up from .474 to .485. He set a major-league record with 15 leadoff homers.
It was his best offensive season since 2021, maybe ever.
“Was this a better year? Absolutely,” Schwarber said late in the season. “Do I feel like there can be even more better ahead? Absolutely. I feel like I’ve definitely progressed on some things I wanted to progress on. Now it’s like, OK, what else can you keep progressing on?
“When you hit in the offseason, now you’ve got those things that you want to work on and you can keep trying to make yourself better and better and better.”
And if Schwarber made a change, the Phillies figure other hitters can, too.
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“The reason that he had a better year was he went into the offseason last year wanting to cut down on strikeouts, so he thought more about hitting the ball the other way, staying on the baseball,” Thomson said. “He did that, and his numbers against left-handed pitching were probably the best he’s had in his career.
“I think if more guys take that approach, we’re going to chase less, we’re gonna score more runs.”
To be clear: Thomson is referring to Turner, in particular, but also Stott.
‘We get ourselves out’
After the vanquishing by the Mets, Turner was asked if opponents have developed a better plan for getting the Phillies out.
“I personally think we get ourselves out,” he said. “I don’t think it matters who’s on the mound.”
Dombrowski read Turner’s comment and found it “enlightening.”
“Because that is true at times, and other clubs know that,” Dombrowski said. “So, we need to keep working with these guys where we can make the proper adjustments so they don’t keep doing those type of things.”
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Turner did snip his chase rate to 33.9% from a career-high 35.3% last season; Castellanos reduced his to 37.8% from 41%. (Harper and Schwarber swing at a lot of pitches out of the zone, too, though it isn’t always as noticeable because they walk frequently.)
But Turner remains unapologetically aggressive at the plate. Castellanos suggested all the focus on chase rate contributed to his wretched April.
“I feel like older guys, kind of myself, Nick’s probably this way, too, we go up there to hit. We want to hit,” Turner, 31, said late in the season. “And if we walk, that’s good. But I feel like now, some of these players coming up are thinking about that walk almost more than they are hitting, you know? I don’t think that’s a bad thing. I just think that’s how it’s changed.
“For me, yeah, I want to walk more, but I’m up there to hit.”
Sure, but Turner does swing at more pitches out of the zone now than he did earlier in his career. He doesn’t use the field as much, either. When he won the batting title in 2021, for instance, he chased at a 26.4% rate and pulled the ball to left field 36.6% of the time. His pull rate this season was 43.6%, a career high.
It’s tougher to hit now than when Turner broke in with the Nationals. The major-league average this season was .243, tied for the worst mark since 1968, the infamous “Year of the Pitcher.” Pitchers are throwing harder than ever, while attacking with breaking pitches in hitters’ counts.
But Turner also concedes that he got more hits the opposite way to right field when teams would shift him to pull. Since the shift was banned two years ago, he hasn’t gone to right field as often.
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“Trea knows that’s what his approach needs to be,” Thomson said. “I think there’s some tweaks in his mechanics that [hitting coach] Kevin [Long] will go to work on this winter to get him to use the field to get him to hit line drives. He’s going to run into 25 [homers] just because he hits the ball a long way. But we need to get him on base and steal bases and create that havoc.”
Stott’s mandate is similar. Despite leading the majors in two-strike hits in 2023, the Phillies wanted him to be more aggressive early in counts. But opponents countered by attacking Stott with breaking pitches early to set him up for fastballs. He batted more than 80 points lower against heaters than in 2023. He also hit more balls in the air and fewer line drives.
“I think Stott’s swing changed a little bit during the course of the year,” Thomson said. “He’s got to get back to who he is, and that’s grinding out pitchers, seeing a lot of pitches, using the other field, hitting line drives.”
If it sounds like the Phillies are putting the onus on their existing core to avoid another step back in the postseason, well, they are. Dombrowski will try to change the mix through a trade or free agency. But swapping Marsh or Johan Rojas for an outfielder with a different skill set or signing, say, Jurickson Profar or Alex Verdugo to play left field will accomplish only so much.
With a payroll that exceeded the $257 million second tier of the luxury tax and is expected to reach those heights again next year, the Phillies must get more from the players they already have.
“It’s nothing that Kevin and the other hitting coaches haven’t been pushing,” Thomson said. “We just have to come up with a plan and get them to buy in. To a man, we’ve seen at times all of them being able to use the field, so I think they need to take that approach a little bit more. And I think they can do it.”
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