Phillies 2025 starting pitching outlook: Free-agent options, prospect forecast, and more

The fifth starter spot became a carousel for the Phillies in 2024. They still owe Taijuan Walker $36 million, but how can they address their one glaring hole in the rotation?

From left: Taijuan Walker, Andrew Painter, and Walker Buehler.Read more Yong Kim, Monica Herndon

by Lochlahn March

Published Oct. 30, 2024, 5:00 a.m. ET

The Phillies’ fifth starter carousel started spinning even before opening day in 2024.

A shoulder injury landed presumptive fifth starter Taijuan Walker on the injured list in the final week of spring training, so the Phillies turned to Spencer Turnbull to start the season in the rotation. Turnbull became the first of six pitchers (not counting openers) who got a chance in that fifth slot.

Some stuck around for a few weeks. A few got multiple call-ups. But none of Walker, Turnbull, Tyler Phillips, Kolby Allard, Michael Mercado, nor Seth Johnson solidified the fifth spot as his own, and so the carousel spun on.

With only four starters needed in the National League Division Series, the rotation was not the reason the Phillies faltered in the playoffs. But the overall lack of consistency was an issue raised by Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski in his season-end news conference, one he pointed to as a reason for the Phillies’ decline after the All-Star break.

“When you look at the fifth spot that we had, that was not a good spot at all for us the last two months of the season,” Dombrowski said. “… All of a sudden, we’re not going out there with a consistent five-man rotation, which I think is very important.”

The current rotation

Before weighing some moves Dombrowski could make to establish that consistency, let’s start with the pieces the Phillies have in place already. Zack Wheeler put together another Cy Young Award-caliber season in 2024. Aaron Nola was durable and dependable. Cristopher Sánchez established himself as a key rotation piece and was named an All-Star for the first time.

Ranger Suárez had an All-Star start to the season but lost his form in the second half after recovering from a lower back injury. His fastball velocity dipped, and his performance suffered as a result: Suárez posted a 2.76 ERA in the first half and a 5.65 mark after the All-Star break. Even so, Suárez gutted out a solid Game 4 performance in the NLDS, though it was wasted by the Phillies offense.

Wheeler (200 innings), Nola (199⅓), and Sánchez (181⅔) were three of 21 pitchers in the majors to throw more than 180 innings in the regular season. All three of them signed contract extensions in the last year. Wheeler is under team control through 2027, and Nola and Sánchez are under control through 2030.

Suárez, on the other hand, is set to become a free agent in 2026. Dombrowski doesn’t like to tip his hand at his plans for contract extensions, and any offseason deal with Suárez, 29, is no exception.

“We like Ranger a lot. I mean, understandably so,” Dombrowski said. “And we like the Ranger the first half of the season better than the second half. There was a lot that was involved in that from his own perspective. But he’s a good pitcher. We’re all very open-minded to have Ranger in the organization for a long time.”

The Walker question

After the worst season of his career, Walker is set to follow a detailed winter program aimed at rediscovering the 2022 form that netted him his current $72 million contract.

“I would think he’ll come in spring training with us next year, but he’s not guaranteed a starting spot,” Dombrowski said.

Walker pitches to contact and historically induces a lot of ground balls. But because of his struggles with velocity and command in 2024, he wasn’t missing many barrels. Walker’s swing-and-miss rate (16.7%) and average exit velocity (91.4 mph) were in the bottom 1% of MLB pitchers.

Walker’s offseason program will be similar to what the Phillies tried during the season, featuring weighted balls to increase his velocity. Manager Rob Thomson thought the program had been helping, but it had to be paused when Walker moved back to the starting rotation in September. Thomson hopes a full offseason of work will lead to permanent changes.

“He’s approaching it as if he’s got to win a job. And so I think knowing Tai, he’s going to give his best effort to get this thing done,” Thomson said.

If Walker doesn’t make a turnaround, however, and the Phillies choose to cut ties, they are on the hook for the $36 million remaining on his contract.

Painter watch

Top pitching prospect Andrew Painter certainly will figure into the Phillies’ future rotation. The question is how soon the 6-foot-7 right-hander can make the leap.

“He is a very, very talented individual, and it’s apparent he’s healthy,” Dombrowski said. “… We’re going to have to make a determination how we’re going to use his innings next year, because he’s not going to be a guy that we can throw out and count on pitching 180 innings at the major-league level.”

That determination will be made after Painter finishes his stint in the Arizona Fall League. The 21-year-old has pitched seven innings across three appearances in the AFL, including three scoreless innings on Thursday. In his first real game action since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023, Painter’s heater topped out at 100 mph on Oct. 12.

Moving further down the pipeline, No. 6 overall prospect Mick Abel’s outlook is a bit more cloudy. A first-round pick in the 2020 draft, Abel, 23, was in the conversation to make his major league debut sometime during the 2024 season after an impressive spring training. But he then struggled in triple A, posting a 6.46 ERA over 108⅔ innings and fell down the depth chart.

Abel’s 15.1% walk rate was a career high and his 22.7% strikeout rate was a career low. He will have to rediscover his command to have a chance to break through with the big-league club.

A name to know outside of the Phillies’ top-30 prospect list is Eiberson Castellano. In September, the 23-year-old right-hander was named the Phillies’ minor league pitcher of the year following his first season as a full-time starter. In 20 starts between high-A Jersey Shore and double-A Reading, Castellano posted a 3.99 ERA, and his 136 strikeouts were the most of all Phillies minor leaguers.

Unless they are placed on the Phillies’ 40-man roster, Abel and Castellano will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft that will take place at the winter meetings, which begin Dec. 8.

Possible targets

With Painter waiting in the wings, the Phillies will not be in the conversation for expensive front-end names like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried this offseason. But injuries happen, and Dombrowski may opt to double down on starting pitching to establish further depth.

“It does make it a more difficult chore in the sense that you’re not sure when [Painter’s] going to come back,” Dombrowski said. “If you sign somebody and they’re looking for a chance to get the ball on an everyday basis, there’s some complexities in it, but nothing that’s insurmountable.”

Turnbull will be a free agent after missing most of the season with a right shoulder strain. Before he landed on the injured list in June, Turnbull had a 2.65 ERA in 17 appearances (seven starts) for the Phillies. Turnbull hasn’t yet proved he can sustain that success, however; he hasn’t had a starter’s workload since 2019 because of a long injury history. And after a tumultuous 2024 season pingponging between the rotation and the bullpen, it’s unclear what role the 32-year-old will have, if any.

Potential directions for the Phillies could include a short-term deal on a player like the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler as a depth piece. The 30-year-old right-hander struggled this season after returning from his second Tommy John surgery. But Buehler has been effective in the postseason and could be an inexpensive reclamation project, if the Phillies are willing to see if he can recapture his 2021 All-Star form while they wait for Painter.

And the Phillies could still make a bigger splash with a trade for the White Sox’ Garrett Crochet, whom they previously pursued at the deadline. The 25-year-old lefty had a 35.1% strikeout rate and an expected ERA of 2.83 in 2024. Crochet has a five-pitch mix, highlighted by a four-seamer that averaged 97.1 mph. His overall stats dropped off in the second half of the season as Chicago limited his innings, but he was able to stay healthy in his first full season as a starter.