The Phillies’ outfield production is among the majors’ worst since Bryce Harper moved. Can they fix it?

Bryce Harper was still swollen from taking a fastball off the right elbow. Not ready to get back in the lineup two weeks ago, he stood in right field and chased fly balls in batting practice.

It was a reminder of how the Phillies' outfield was meant to look.

It’s easy to forget, after all that’s happened, that the Phillies signed Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos in 2022 to divide their time between left field and designated hitter, with Harper entrenched in right and Rhys Hoskins at first base.

And it all went according to plan for, oh, about eight games.

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Harper tore a ligament in his right elbow two weeks into the 2022 season, which turned him into a DH the rest of the way before offseason Tommy John surgery. One thing led to another (more on those later), and, well, he didn’t play the outfield again.

Since Harper’s last game as a right fielder — April 16, 2022, in Miami — the Phillies ranked 11th in slugging (.415) and 12th in OPS (.730) from the three outfield spots entering the weekend. Most of that production came in right (.425 slugging, .738 OPS), where Castellanos took over and has remained since Harper moved to first base midway through 2023.

But the overall picture at the position is much worse. The Phillies’ post-Harper outfield ranked 21st among 30 teams with 16.4 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. The nine teams with fewer outfield WAR combined for only four playoff appearances in the last three seasons.

It has been an even bigger weakness this season. Through Thursday, Phillies outfielders — chiefly Castellanos and platoons of Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas in center field and Max Kepler and Weston Wilson in left — ranked 20th in slugging (.371) and tied for 21st in OPS (.681). They combined for 0.3 WAR, according to FanGraphs, fewer than only the Pirates, White Sox, Guardians, Rockies, and Royals.

And with slugging outfielders in high demand and short supply across the sport, it’s difficult to spot a difference-making solution for president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to chase before the July 31 trade deadline.

Just like last year. And the year before.

» READ MORE: Early Phillies trade deadline preview: Bullpen help will be costly. Here are some relievers to watch.

And in many ways, it all traces back to Harper.

It isn’t so much the decision after the 2023 season to keep Harper at first base. Dombrowski billed it as a move to “make us more athletic” — translation: improve the overall defense — by playing Marsh and Rojas side by side, and although the outfield defense isn’t elite, it’s better than it would have been with Harper and Castellanos/Schwarber in the corners.

The bigger problem is that the Phillies never adequately replaced Harper’s bat in the outfield, partially because they underestimated an industrywide downward trend in offense from the position.

After Harper injured his elbow in 2022, the Phillies moved Castellanos to right field and kept Schwarber in left, run prevention be damned.

But what the outfield lacked in defensive competence — the Phillies ranked last in defensive runs saved and 29th in outs above average — it retained in power hitting. And Dombrowski added center field defense in a deadline trade for Marsh from the Angels for catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe, whose path was blocked by J.T. Realmuto.

The Phillies made their out-of-left-field World Series run with Schwarber in left field, often replacing him when they led late in games. And they were content to begin 2023 the same way while Harper recovered from surgery.

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Even so, the Phillies planned for Harper to return to right field … eventually.

But then Hoskins blew out his knee in spring training and was lost for the season. Harper volunteered to learn first base for multiple reasons. Not only could Alec Bohm stay at third, but first base would put less strain on Harper’s elbow than making throws from the outfield.

It also reopened the DH spot for Schwarber. The Phillies put Marsh in left field and called up Rojas to play center, and the defense was so much stronger that Dombrowski passed on an outfield addition at the trade deadline.

The Phillies doubled down on Marsh and Rojas in the offseason instead of wading into an unappealing free agent outfield market headlined by Cody Bellinger and Teoscar Hernández. But by the middle of last season, the lack of offense from left field and center needed to be addressed.

“We felt very comfortable to have a defensive player in center field,” Dombrowski said last July after trading for Austin Hays from the Orioles, “but all of a sudden, we were playing two defensive players in left field and in center field.”

A hamstring strain and a kidney infection conspired to limit Hays to 80 plate appearances and a .672 OPS.

Dombrowski pointed again to left field as an offseason priority, but the free-agent market was still lacking beyond Juan Soto. Had the Phillies chased Anthony Santander, Michael Conforto, Tyler O’Neill, or Jurickson Profar, who subsequently was suspended for a failed drug test, they’d be experiencing buyer’s remorse.

» READ MORE: Can Kyle Schwarber hit 500 home runs? It’s not that far-fetched. Here’s how he can get there.

They opted for Kepler, wagering $10 million for one year that he would bounce back from an injury-marred season with the Twins. It hasn’t happened. The Phillies figured Kepler at least would hit right-handed pitching. Entering the weekend, he was batting .215 and slugging .392 against righties.

Marsh, also a left-handed hitter, hasn’t produced against righties, either, slugging .351 with only six doubles and one homer entering the weekend against three righty starters for the Blue Jays.

Add it up, and the Phillies ranked 21st and 25th in OPS in left field (.681) and center (.613), respectively.

It all sets up a familiar search before the trade deadline.

Harper was on board with leaving right field behind. But he also told Dombrowski that he isn’t opposed to returning to his former position if needed, a stance he reiterated in spring training.

“If something came up at the deadline that would make us a better team, I would obviously make the decision to go back out there if they wanted me to,” Harper said. “For the long term? Probably not. But for the short term, I definitely would.”

OK, the ship probably has sailed on that idea.

Harper is sidelined by the recurrence of a right wrist injury that caused him “pretty good pain” last season. It’s unclear when he will return. Whenever that is, a position switch is unlikely.

» READ MORE: From November 2024: The Phillies don’t want to move Bryce Harper back to the outfield. Given the free-agent alternatives, maybe they should.

In hindsight, though, the Phillies should’ve considered it last winter.

For one thing, major league outfielders totaled a .715 OPS last season, the 10th-lowest mark at the position since 1912. Six of the seasons that were worse were in the dead-ball era; another was 1968, the infamous “Year of the Pitcher.”

Center field, particularly, is an offensive dead zone. One generation after Ken Griffey Jr., Andruw Jones, Bernie Williams, Jim Edmonds, Kenny Lofton, Carlos Beltrán, and Torii Hunter, the OPS in center field last season fell to .697, the second-lowest mark since 1989 and seventh-lowest since 1912.

“In center field, there’s such an emphasis on the defensive aspect of the game. You want somebody that can go get the ball in center,” Dombrowski said. “So you’re in a position where if you’re willing to sacrifice some offense somewhere, that’s one of the positions you do it.”

But that works only if there’s more offense coming from left field. And since the beginning of last season — with Schwarber as a full-time DH and Harper at first base — Phillies left fielders rank 21st in slugging (.377) and 22nd in OPS (.681).

If anything, teams have satisfied their outfield needs by converting players from other positions. It worked for the Padres, who moved Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill from the dirt to the grass. The Astros did it with Jose Altuve and Cam Smith. Oneil Cruz (Pirates) and Javier Báez (Tigers) did it, too.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper on Kyle Schwarber: ‘I don’t see him playing anywhere else’

But Dombrowski maintained throughout the offseason that the Phillies had little appetite for returning Harper to the outfield. In time, maybe Trea Turner will move from shortstop to left field. But it isn’t happening this season.

Internally, solutions will have to come from elsewhere. Touted prospect Justin Crawford is batting .349 with 23 steals and an .864 OPS in triple A. But the 21-year-old also has been out with a strained quadriceps.

Orioles center fielder Cedric Mullins (10 homers, .450 slugging) could wind up as the best available center fielder at the trade deadline. He’s eligible for free agency after the season, and last-place Baltimore appears poised to sell.

The Phillies released veteran utilityman Whit Merrifield last July despite owing him approximately $3.4 million after he batted .199 with a .572 OPS in 174 plate appearances. There aren’t indications that they are contemplating a similar ties-cutting move with Kepler.

But it won’t stop them from seeking help in left field with a righty-hitting upgrade over Wilson or an everyday player to replace Kepler. Taylor Ward, a righty-hitting outfielder who led the Angels with 18 homers entering the weekend, is among the better power hitters on a noncontending team.

The Phillies have other deadline needs, notably the bullpen, which is expected to remain their highest priority. But the same old shortcomings in left and center aren’t going away, familiar problems without obvious solutions.