59 Phillies thoughts for Eagles Super Bowl Sunday: Schwarber’s future, Harper nears history, and more

Once the Eagles and Chiefs settle Super Bowl LIX, mitts will begin poppin’ across Florida and Arizona. Until then, here's LIX baseball notes to ponder.

Bryce Harper (center) will be entering his seventh season with the Phillies.Read moreHeather Khalifa / Staff Photographer

by Scott Lauber

Published Feb. 7, 2025, 9:00 a.m. ET

Fly, Eagles, fly

On the road to vict-... wait, what? Spring training starts next week?

True. Once the Eagles and Chiefs settle Super Bowl LIX, mitts will begin poppin’ across Florida and Arizona. Until then, LIX baseball notes:

I. With three Super Bowl appearances in eight years, this undoubtedly is the golden age in Eagles history. The Phillies, meanwhile, will attempt to make the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season for only the second time in 143 years (2007-11).

II. PECOTA, the Baseball Prospectus projection system, pegs the Phillies for the second National League wild card with 87.5 wins.

III. If that seems low, PECOTA forecast 84.4 wins for the Phillies last year. They won 95 games and the NL East crown.

IV. Rob Thomson plans to experiment with batting-order configurations in spring training before recommitting to Kyle Schwarber in the leadoff spot or turning to someone else.

V. Despite batting mostly second for the Phillies, Trea Turner has more career starts and better numbers in the leadoff spot (.302/.351/.485) than as a No. 2 hitter (.292/.344/.477). He’s the likeliest leadoff alternative to Schwarber, especially against lefty starters.

VI. Then again, the Phillies are 219-161 with Schwarber leading off over the last three years, a 93-win full-season pace.

VII. Player A: .344 on-base percentage, 131 home runs, 129 OPS+ in 465 games.

VIII. Player B: .320 OBP, 84 homers, 124 OPS+ in 445 games.

IX. Schwarber (Player A) in three seasons with the Phillies.

X. Teoscar Hernández (Player B) in the last three seasons.

XI. The Dodgers brought back Hernández on a three-year, $66 million deal that will cover his age 32 to 34 seasons. That’s a decent comp for Schwarber’s next contract. He turns 32 in March and is eligible for free agency after the season.

XII. The Dodgers had a massive winter. The defending champs added Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Michael Conforto, and Hyeseong Kim, re-signed Hernández and Blake Treinen, and hiked their projected luxury-tax payroll to $389.1 million, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. But since 2012, the team with the highest payroll won the World Series only twice (2018 Red Sox, 2024 Dodgers).

XIII. Mark your calendar: The Dodgers come to town April 4-6 to close the Phillies’ first homestand.

XIV. The Phillies’ payroll stands at $306.2 million, third-highest in the sport and in excess of the fourth luxury-tax threshold, known colloquially as the “Steve Cohen Tax” after the Mets owner. Their tax rate will rise to 110%.

XV. Last year, the Phillies were taxed $14,351,954 on a $264,314,134 payroll, according to the Associated Press. It marked the third year in a row that they paid the luxury tax, with the bill rising from $2,882,657 in 2022 to $6,977,345 in 2023.

XVI. In November, the Phillies donated $1 million to AMPLIFY Clearwater to help their spring-training hometown recover from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. “We have always felt a deep connection to Clearwater,” owner John Middleton said then. “It’s very, very important to us.”

XVII. Bryce Harper is 24 RBIs from becoming the fourth player ever with 1,000 RBIs, 1,000 walks, and 100 stolen bases by age 32. The others: Mickey Mantle, Carl Yastrzemski, Barry Bonds.

XVIII. Harper wants to play until he’s 42. To help achieve that longevity, he adheres to an all-natural diet. “I’m super overboard,” he said in a conversation at the end of last season.

XIX. Such as? “Seed oils are terrible,” Harper said. “Worst thing ever for you. I stick with beef tallow. I order my olive oil from Italy. I don’t buy store-bought dressings. I don’t buy store-bought anything.” There’s more, including single-origin coffee, grass-fed beef, and kamut flour for homemade bread, which Harper likes to bake for his family on Sunday nights at home — and recently for fans on TikTok.

XX. In his first season as a full-time first baseman, Harper ranked third in outs above average (eight) and tied for fifth in defensive runs saved (five). He’s the Gold Glove favorite, with Christian Walker moving to the American League.

XXI. Quiz: The Phillies have had seven opening-day center fielders in the last seven seasons. How many can you name? (Answer below.)

XXII. Cole Hamels will assist the Phillies as a guest instructor in spring training. He was 22 when he made his major league debut in 2006; Andrew Painter will be 22 when he joins the Phillies’ rotation later this season. “The similarities obviously are there,” Hamels said on Phillies Extra, The Inquirer’s new baseball show on Gameday Central. “There is pressure, so it’s just giving him the right words for advice and then seeing how he prepares. The last year and a half has been a rehab process. That’s a tough thing to overcome to get into that mentality of, ‘I’m healthy, I’m good to go.’”

XXIII. Other guest instructors expected to drop by: Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, and Shane Victorino.

XXIV. Not saying Phillies camp will be uneventful, but, barring injuries, the most contested positional battle is between backup catchers Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchán. Otherwise, there’s one open spot in the bullpen and one on the bench.

XXV. Although Stubbs is the incumbent, he’s also the underdog by virtue of having a minor league option. Marchán can’t be sent to the minors without exposure to waivers.

XXVI. Bench candidates Kody Clemens and Buddy Kennedy also are out of options. Watch for a trade in late March, maybe for organizational outfield depth.

XXVII. J.T. Realmuto turns 34 in March and had knee surgery last year, so it makes sense that the Phillies want to trim his workload. Here’s the list of catchers who have started at least 120 games behind the plate at 34 or older in the last 20 years: Yadier Molina, A.J. Pierzynski, Jason Kendall, Bengie Molina, Jason Varitek, Jorge Posada, Iván Rodríguez, Mike Matheny, and Gregg Zaun.

XXVIII. Still, who wouldn’t want to be a fly on the wall when Thomson explains why rest could help Realmuto, a free agent after the season? “I don’t know how he’s going to react,” Thomson said. “I’ll have to do some convincing, I guess.”

XXIX. Make way for robo-umps. MLB will use the automated ball-strike system for 60% of spring-training games, including 27 of the Phillies’ 31 exhibitions. Teams will begin with two challenges and retain them as long as they’re successful. Commissioner Rob Manfred said recently he’s hopeful of instituting ABS in regular-season games by 2026.

XXX. Save the date: July 27. The Hall of Fame class, including late Phillies slugger Dick Allen and former closer Billy Wagner, will be inducted in Cooperstown, N.Y. Wagner said he wants an Astros cap on his plaque. Allen’s likely will feature a Phillies cap, though an announcement from the Hall of Fame isn’t expected until later this month.

XXXI. Center fielder Johan Rojas asked to play winter ball in his native Dominican Republic, and the Phillies agreed, hoping he would apply swing changes that he made in the fall with assistant hitting coach Rafael Peña.

XXXII. Take this for what it’s worth after Rojas posted a .601 OPS last season, 237th among 241 players with 350 plate appearances: He batted .295 with a .382 on-base percentage in 30 games in winter ball. He also went 23-for-23 in stolen-base attempts.

XXXIII. Unlike last year, when Rojas was favored to win the center-field job, he figures to play mostly against lefty starters. But Brandon Marsh or new left fielder Max Kepler could leave open the door for Rojas to play more if either doesn’t produce.

XXXIV. Quiz answer: Rojas (2024), Marsh (2023), Matt Vierling (2022), Adam Haseley (2021), Roman Quinn (2020), Odúbel Herrera (2019), and Aaron Altherr (2018).

XXXV. Zack Wheeler is set to begin a three-year contract extension that will pay him $42 million per year through 2027. His statistical rankings among all pitchers (minimum 300 innings) over the last five seasons: WAR, first (25.4); quality starts, first (90); innings, second (829⅓); ERA, sixth (2.94); strikeouts, sixth (899); opponents’ OPS, sixth (.611); WHIP, seventh (1.031).

XXXVI. Eighteen months after Tommy John surgery, Painter will throw bullpen sessions and live batting practice in major league camp but won’t pitch in spring training games. The 21-year-old will face an innings limit in his return from not pitching for two years, and the Phillies want him available later in the season.

XXXVII. Painter’s expected arrival in the majors: “July-ish,” to use Dave Dombrowski’s words.

XXXVIII. The measured approach is a contrast from two years ago, when the Phillies put Painter in the running for a rotation spot and even Middleton watched his bullpen session on the first day of camp.

XXXIX. There isn’t a spot in the rotation for Taijuan Walker, the Phillies’ eighth-highest-paid player ($18 million). It will be awkward. Coming off a 7.10 ERA in 83⅔ innings last season, he lacks trade value, even if the Phillies pick up every cent of the $36 million that he’s owed through 2026.

XL. Walker’s average fastball velocity is in a four-year decline, from 94.5 mph in 2021 to 93.7, 92.8, and 91.5 last season, according to Statcast, and it has adversely affected his signature splitter. Maybe the trend is irreversible. But the Phillies gave him a multiphased offseason routine designed to regain velocity. “I know the program is a good program, and it’s worked in the past,” Thomson said. “Hopefully it happens.”

XLI. Best-case scenarios: Walker pitches well in spring training, and a) begins the season as the long man in the bullpen or b) gets traded, with the Phillies paying down the majority of his salary.

XLII. Worst-case scenario: The Phillies release Walker and swallow the money. It happens. Last season, the Astros cut ties with first baseman José Abreu with $35 million left on his contract. The Diamondbacks were on the hook for $34 million when they released lefty Madison Bumgarner in 2023.

XLIII. Pitcher A: 2.87 ERA, 574 strikeouts, 1.093 WHIP, 147 ERA+ in 603 innings since 2021.

XLIV. Pitcher B: 3.27 ERA, 500 strikeouts, 1.250 WHIP, 126 ERA+ in 537 innings since 2021.

XLV. Max Fried (Pitcher A). The 31-year-old lefty, formerly of the Braves, signed an eight-year, $218 million contract with the Yankees this winter.

XLVI. Ranger Suárez (Pitcher B). The Phillies lefty will turn 30 in August and be a free agent next winter. He also recently hired agent Scott Boras.

XLVII. What can lefty Cristopher Sánchez do to improve on a breakout season in which he was an All-Star and started Game 2 of a playoff series? Develop a new pitch, of course. “I won’t say what those are,” he said, smiling, “but I’m working on a few new things.” The guess here: He’s perfecting a cutter that he featured last spring but didn’t use much during the season.

XLVIII. The Phillies acquired minor league reliever Josh Hejka from the Mets this week for cash considerations. Hejka, 27, is a side-arming righty who majored in computer science at Johns Hopkins. In the offseason, he works in research and development for Driveline Baseball, a data-driven player-development company.

XLIX. ’Tis the season for prospect rankings. Painter, shortstop Aidan Miller, teen catcher Eduardo Tait, and center fielder Justin Crawford are Nos. 9, 36, 93, and 96, respectively, in Baseball America’s top 100. MLB Pipeline has Painter and Miller at No. 8 and 27, followed by Crawford (64) and Tait (93).

L. Miller and Crawford will be in major league camp for the first time and almost certainly will open the season in double A. But Dombrowski isn’t averse to pushing a top prospect, either. With the Red Sox, he called up outfielder Andrew Benintendi from double A in 2016 and third baseman Rafael Devers after only nine triple-A games in 2017.

LI. Since 2018, Juan Soto leads all visiting players with 13 homers at Citizens Bank Park — in only 38 games. The Mets, who signed Soto to a record $765 million contract, come to town for two series (June 20-22 and Sept. 8-11).

LII. Among the most surprising aspects of the Mets’ divisional series victory over the Phillies was that they did it with one lefty reliever (David Peterson). It was notable, then, when they signed A.J. Minter. The former Braves lefty is coming back from hip surgery but has neutralized Harper (2-for-14, six strikeouts, three walks) and Schwarber (1-for-12, three strikeouts, five walks) in his career.

LIII. Only three of the Phillies’ 13 games against the Braves are before Memorial Day. Why is that significant? Because although Atlanta’s best pitcher (Spencer Strider) and player (Ronald Acuña Jr.) won’t be ready by opening day after surgeries last year, they might miss only about four to six weeks.

LIV. Acuña’s cousin is the headliner of the Phillies’ 2025 international amateur class. Nieves Izaguirre, a 17-year-old shortstop from Venezuela, signed for $800,000.

LV. The Phillies have struggled to break into the Japanese market for, well, forever. Last month, they took a flier on sidearming righty Koyo Aoyagi. The 31-year-old signed a minor league contract and will come to camp to compete for a job in the bullpen.

LVI. Fox’s cameras spotted Middleton high-fiving Bradley Cooper after Jalen Hurts’ fourth-quarter touchdown in the NFC championship game. Middleton is planning to attend the Super Bowl.

LVII. Hurts is the best athlete to come from Channelview High School in Texas. But the school also produced strong-armed former outfielder Glenn Wilson, acquired by the Phillies in a 1984 trade with the Tigers. Wilson was an All-Star in ’85 and hit a career-high 15 homers in ’86.

LVIII. Sure, Whitehall High School produced Saquon Barkley. But did you know that late Phillies pitcher Curt Simmons, a 17-game winner for the 1950 Whiz Kids, also graduated from the Lehigh Valley school?

LIX. Eagles 28, Chiefs 27. Enjoy the game.