The Dodgers and Mets have the spotlight, but the Phillies remain confident thanks to their starting pitching

CLEARWATER, Fla. — When the gates opened at Dodgers camp, the World Series champs unveiled their offseason prizes — a two-time Cy Young winner (Blake Snell) and an international sensation (Roki Sasaki) — in side-by-side bullpen sessions that popped mitts and flashbulbs.

Any day now, Juan Soto will roll up to Mets camp and give his new team 765 million reasons to love its chances after a surprising playoff run last October.

The Day 1 attraction with the Phillies: Maligned righty Taijuan Walker threw from a mound and said he felt “a lot stronger.”

» READ MORE: Nine questions for the Phillies as spring training opens: Welcome, Bohm, future of stars, and more

All that’s shiny and new in Clearwater this spring is the Phillies' clubhouse, refurbished with fluorescent lighting in each locker. As the last two teams standing in the National League last fall added more star power, the Phillies mostly ran back the year-older cast of a $306 million roster that got upset in the divisional round.

But while the forecasters fall over themselves to boost the Dodgers' projected win total — Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA rankings has it at 103.6 — and the Mets are the trendy pick to win the NL East after signing Soto to a historic contract, the Phillies feel certain they can hang with any team in the majors.

Two words explain their self-assurance: starting pitching.

“Most of our confidence, in my opinion, comes from the starting staff,” J.T. Realmuto said before Wednesday’s first official workout. “In baseball, that’s just so important, having starters that can go deep in the games and give you a chance to win every night. There’s not a guy in our rotation that anybody wants to face.

“And we have a legitimate five- to six-man rotation that can be absolutely dominant. They set us up for success, for sure.”

In 2025, not even every contending team can say that. Injuries relegated the Dodgers to a bullpen game in the World Series, prompting them to load up with Snell and Sasaki. The Mets, under president of baseball operations David Stearns, have resisted giving out long-term contracts to players in their 30s, especially pitchers.

Over 162 games, attrition is real, particularly within the pitching ranks. More teams are building super-bullpens and relying less on workhorse starters.

» READ MORE: The Phillies are stockpiling starters, which makes perfect sense in a hitting-challenged era

But the Phillies have gotten good at keeping their best pitchers healthy. And in December, they traded for Jesús Luzardo, a lefty with top-of-the-rotation stuff, with the intention of slotting him behind Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, and Ranger Suárez.

They will put that rotation up against any in baseball — with top prospect Andrew Painter on the way in midseason — and take their chances.

“Always a great place to start is starting pitching, and I think we have tremendous starting pitching,” Dave Dombrowski said. “There are a couple of clubs that are five deep. Seattle’s got really five good starters; the Dodgers have five good starters; the Yankees. Not [as] many clubs do it as much.

“But to me, I still like the opportunity when your starting pitcher gives you an edge over the other club’s starting pitcher and you know they can go deep into games. I still like that philosophy as a way to try to win games.”

The Phillies won 95 games last season, largely due to a starting staff that was the league’s best before the All-Star break. It isn’t coincidental that they played at a .500 level over the final two months when Suárez came down with a sore back, Walker’s ERA soared to 7.10, and the internal replacements (Tyler Phillips, Kolby Allard, Michael Mercado, and Seth Johnson) struggled.

Looking back, Dombrowski regrets not doing more to fortify the back of a staff that still finished with the NL’s third-best rotation ERA (3.81).

» READ MORE: Andrew Painter is healthy and pitching again. Here’s how the Phillies are planning for his return in 2025.

“We very well might have won 100 if we ended up getting a fifth starter that worked out after the trading deadline,” he said. “We did not win very many games out of our fifth-starter position when you got to the second half of the season. So, it was a really good club, a disappointing finish. We all know that.”

The finish is all that really matters. Nobody wants to hear that the Phillies won more regular-season games last year than in 2023, and more in 2023 than in 2022. They have backslid in the playoffs since losing in the World Series three seasons ago while keeping intact a core that only keeps aging.

“None of us are getting younger,” said Realmuto, who will be 34 in March. “We know that time is a real thing. Father Time is coming for all of us. We don’t have all the time in the world. We’re not all 27 years old and we get to play together for another eight years. There’s definitely a sense of urgency in this group.”

Meanwhile, the Dodgers are trying to go from defending champs to super-team, and the Soto Mets are the flavor of the spring. They’re also the only teams with a higher luxury-tax payroll than the Phillies' $306.2 million roster.

But the Dodgers have been inundated with pitching injuries over the last few years. The Mets are counting on a rotation that is led by Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga, neither of whom is a proven ace.

» READ MORE: Phillies’ Taijuan Walker enters camp ‘on a mission’ as he faces an uncertain role in 2025

And then, there are the Phillies, who are sure they belong in the conversation.

“It’s interesting how it works,” Dombrowski said. “Your success right now is very determined on how you do in the postseason. I don’t hear anybody say, ‘Hey, the Phillies beat the Dodgers five out of six last year during the regular season.’ But we did. I mean, they’ve got a tremendous club, as do others in our league, but I think we match up against anybody.

“I hope we get the opportunity to do that in October.”