Nine questions for the Phillies as spring training opens: Welcome, Bohm, future of stars, and more

CLEARWATER, Fla. — The first golden era in Phillies history had an expiration date.

After losing in the National League Championship Series in 1976, 1977, and 1978, and missing the playoffs in 1979, the Phillies arrived for spring training in 1980 with an ultimatum: Win the World Series at long last, or say your goodbyes.

“We were basically told,” Larry Bowa recalled a few years ago. “Ruly Carpenter, probably the best owner I ever played for, he said, ‘We’ve got to win this year, or I’ve got to start breaking this thing up.' We knew going in that this could be the last time we played together.”

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Forty-five years later, the stakes aren’t as explicit. But the Bryce Harper Phillies are at an inflection point. After three seasons of winning more games but backsliding in the playoffs with a roster that has remained largely static, changes are coming, if only because core players — J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, and Ranger Suárez — can be free agents after the season.

That’s the backdrop as spring training opens this week. Here, then, is The Inquirer’s annual Starting 9 — a lineup’s worth of questions for the next six weeks in Florida.

Of all the words spoken after the division series loss to the Mets, none reverberated quite so loudly as Trea Turner’s.

“I think we get ourselves out,” the shortstop said. “I don’t think it matters who’s on the mound.”

Turner’s candid self-assessment doubled as an indictment of a high-scoring offense that’s gotten easier to attack because of its aggressiveness. Turner swung at 33.9% of pitches out of the strike zone; as a team, the Phillies chased 30.3% of non-strikes, the sixth-highest rate in baseball.

Dave Dombrowski found Turner’s comments “enlightening” and sought to alter the mix of the lineup. But the Phillies also scored the fifth-highest total of runs in baseball. Addition by subtraction didn’t seem like the best offseason approach, so everyone’s back, along with new left fielder Max Kepler.

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It will fall, then, to hitting coach Kevin Long to, as Dombrowski put it, “keep working with these guys where we can make the proper adjustments so they don’t keep doing those type of things.”

Said manager Rob Thomson: “We really have to get them to buy into using the entire field. Just doing that will cut down on chase rate because you’re going to stay on the ball a little bit longer.”

Well, well, well. Look who’s back at third base.

Maybe it isn’t a shock to Alec Bohm, who went 1-for-13 in the postseason, got benched in Game 2, and still summed up his future in the organization by saying, “I know where I’ll be next year.” But the Phillies did explore trades for Bohm and weren’t satisfied with the offers for a 28-year-old All-Star with two more seasons of club control.

So, Bohm will walk through that clubhouse door, after all. It might be awkward when he takes questions from reporters for the first time, but he’s hardly the first player to return to a team after an offseason of trade rumors.

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It can go two ways now. Bohm can use this as motivation, or it can become a distraction. Thomson did his best to reassure Bohm with a conversation in December.

“This guy’s a really good player,” Thomson said. “But because he’s a good player, there’s a whole lot of interest in him from other teams. Obviously you have to do your homework and talk to people and listen.”

A year ago, the Phillies locked up Zack Wheeler to a contract extension that gave him the highest annual salary in club history ($42 million) and essentially propped open the proverbial “World Series window” through 2027.

Can they keep the whole band together that long?

It’s doubtful. Dombrowski has stressed the importance of developing the next batch of homegrown players to replace players who may exit in free agency. To wit: Trading for Jesús Luzardo and eventually bringing Andrew Painter to the majors should soften the blow if Suárez leaves.

» READ MORE: J.T. Realmuto or … who? The Phillies will face a complex decision with their star catcher.

But not every core player is created equal. Take Realmuto, for instance. The Phillies lack an in-house replacement for their iron-man catcher, who will turn 34 in March and still figures to catch at least 100 games, even if Thomson can convince him to lighten his workload.

Schwarber, 32 in March, has banged 131 homers since 2022, fewer than only Aaron Judge (157) and Shohei Ohtani (132). And his leadership in the clubhouse might be even more powerful than his slugging.

Given the relative importance of Realmuto and Schwarber, the Phillies will likely find out if either is interested in a two- or three-year deal at a similar salary (Realmuto’s average annual value is $23.1 million; Schwarber’s is $19.75 million) before letting them hit the market.

Stop us if you’ve heard this before: Thomson will consider alternatives to Schwarber in the leadoff spot.

The manager mulled other top-of-the-order options last spring, too, before returning to Schwarber, who only set a major-league record with 15 leadoff homers. Sorry, then, if we’re not convinced that someone else will bat first to open the season March 27 in Washington.

But if the Phillies want to tweak an offense that will feature all the same hitters, shuffling the order is one step. They could use one batting order against righty starters with Schwarber leading off and another against lefties. Moving Schwarber could bring a more athletic dynamic to the top while better protecting Harper in the middle.

» READ MORE: Are the Phillies better than last season? How they stack up in a loaded National League.

In that case, Thomson might have to trade his preference of alternating right-handed hitters and lefties for a lineup that looks something like this:

The Phillies tied for 16th in the majors last season with a .399 slugging percentage from their outfielders. Kepler slugged .380 with a career-low eight homers in 399 plate appearances for the Twins. Over the last three seasons, he slugged .408.

“If I’m healthy,” Kepler said, “I’m fine.”

Kepler wasn’t healthy last season, so the Phillies wagered $10 million for 2025 that he will bounce back from surgery on an abdominal muscle that partially detached from his femur. If he doesn’t, at least it’s only a one-year contract.

» READ MORE: Where have all the star center fielders gone? ‘Obvious’ position to fill Phillies’ needs lacks obvious solutions.

But it isn’t only Kepler. Last spring, the Phillies committed to Marsh in left field and light-hitting Johan Rojas in center. They didn’t get enough thump from either, prompting the July trade for righty-hitting Austin Hays, a move that didn’t work out because of injuries and illness.

The bar isn’t especially high for Kepler. But if Marsh isn’t more productive, the overall improvement figures to be marginal.

Yes, at least according to the math.

Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez pitched a total of 87⅓ innings for the Phillies last season before signing with the Blue Jays and Royals, respectively. The Phillies added free-agent righty Jordan Romano off an injury-marred season in Toronto. Even if he repeats the 62 innings that he averaged from 2021-23, they would still be short.

But here’s the thing about bullpens: They undergo as much in-season change as any segment of a roster.

» READ MORE: The Phillies’ reliever numbers don’t add up now, but that’s part of Dave Dombrowski’s bullpen-building calculation

Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Connor Brogdon, Yunior Marte, and Luis Ortiz were in the 2024 opening-day bullpen. All were gone long before the playoffs.

The Phillies expect Orion Kerkering to provide more high-leverage innings, along with Romano, Matt Strahm, and José Alvarado. José Ruiz will get a chance for an expanded role. Other relievers will unexpectedly emerge.

And if the Phillies need more, as they almost certainly will, Dombrowski will take action. He picked up a reliever at three of the last four trade deadlines (Ian Kennedy in 2021, David Robertson in ’22, Estévez last year).

He doesn’t. And it’s going to be uncomfortable.

With back-end starters such as Frankie Montas and Matthew Boyd getting paid in the $15 million to $18 million range in free agency, it shouldn’t be impossible to trade Walker, even though he’s owed $36 million over the next two years. But the 32-year-old righty had a 7.10 ERA last season, the worst mark for a Phillies pitcher (minimum 80 innings) since 1930.

So, the Phillies put Walker on an offseason conditioning and throwing program designed to help halt a four-year decline in his average fastball velocity. Scouts will be watching in spring training to see if it worked.

» READ MORE: The Phillies are stockpiling starting pitchers, which makes perfect sense in a hitting-challenged era

Maybe a pitching-needy team will take a chance and trade for Walker. Otherwise, he could claim the final seat in the bullpen as a long reliever. Or else, the Phillies could release him and swallow the money.

No matter what, the Phillies will probably have to pay most of Walker’s remaining salary, no small matter considering that the payroll exceeds the highest luxury-tax threshold ($301 million).

Two years ago, the Phillies brought Painter to major league camp and put him in the running for a rotation spot. Some within the organization even considered him the favorite — at age 19 — to break camp as the No. 5 starter.

There will be less hysteria this time around.

Painter will throw bullpen sessions and live batting practice with the healthy pitchers in camp but won’t pitch in spring training games.

» READ MORE: Andrew Painter is healthy and pitching again. Here’s how the Phillies are planning for his return in 2025.

Why the training wheels? Because after Tommy John elbow surgery and not pitching for two years, Painter will face an innings limit, and the Phillies want him available later in the season. He likely will stay in Clearwater after spring training to build up before moving through the minors.

Make no mistake, though: The Phillies expect Painter to make his major league debut this season. His ETA: “July-ish,” Dombrowski said.

Maybe it was the jersey number. Whenever a Phillies reliever wears No. 63, the mind tends to go to Ryan Madson.

But Michael Mercado has other Madson-esque qualities.

Start with the tall, wiry frame, the long arms and legs, and the electric right arm. Their career paths — drafted as starters out of Southern California high schools, shifted to the bullpen later — are similar, too.

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Mercado didn’t throw enough strikes to stick around after a promising major-league debut last June. But the 25-year-old left an impression on Thomson and will be on the radar again. And if there’s room for a sleeper on a nearly settled roster, it’s in the bullpen.

Will Mercado be Madson 2.0? Check back.

Could he be the surprise of camp? There’s always one.