The Braves have earned the playoff pole position, but the Phillies have shown that’s not everything

Contrary to how it appeared, the Atlanta Braves didn’t go wire-to-wire en route to winning their sixth consecutive National League East title.

They were a half-game out of first place on April 2.

Oh well. Nobody’s perfect.

But the Braves did take possession of the division lead after their fourth game of the season and didn’t let go. They were up by four games on Memorial Day, eight on the Fourth of July, and 15 on Labor Day. The second-place Phillies entered the weekend playing at a 98-win pace since June 3, but never trailed the Braves by less than 9½ games after the All-Star break.

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So, no, there was never suspense about which team would win the division. It was only a question of when — or more specifically, how soon — the Braves would clinch.

Yet there they were Wednesday night, those peerless Braves, dancing on the field and spraying champagne — and talking up the significance of their 5½-month NL East rampage reaching its inevitable conclusion in Philadelphia, of all places.

“I think it’s more of, just come in here and make a statement,” reliever A.J. Minter told reporters. “I mean, we’re most likely going to see these guys in the postseason this year. We know that. So to come in here and do it on their turf, show them what we’re made of this year, and put a little bit of fear in them.”

Show them what we’re made of? It’s almost as though the Braves haven’t hit more home runs (282 through Thursday) than any team in the 147-year history of the National League. Or posted the highest slugging percentage (.501) since the 1928 St. Louis Stars. Or captured the division title in 146 games, fewer than even the 2011 Phillies’ 150-game conquest.

Indeed, for all of their arm-flapping bravado after bashing tape-measure homers, the Braves seem to believe the gulf between them and the Phillies isn’t as wide as the standings indicate.

Maybe they’re being modest.

Or maybe they’re right.

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The Phillies did, after all, end the Braves’ defense of the 2021 World Series crown by booting them from the playoffs last October in the best-of-five divisional round despite winning 14 fewer games in the regular season. They signed Trea Turner and paired him with Bryce Harper to form a star tandem that’s every bit as dynamic as the Braves’ Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson.

And, as Minter said, you don’t have to squint to see a division series rematch in a few weeks — provided the Phillies survive the best-of-three wild-card round, most likely against the suddenly struggling Chicago Cubs or the middling quartet of wild-card wannabes — Arizona, Cincinnati, Miami, and San Francisco.

If the Braves and Phillies are on a collision course, the next sudsy celebration on South Philly soil will matter a lot more than the one in the visitor’s clubhouse a few nights ago.

“It feels like we can compete with anybody,” Turner said, “and I think they feel the same way.”

Which raises two questions that are worth exploring, especially with the teams set to meet again Monday night in Atlanta: What must the Phillies do to finally unseat the Braves as division champs? And does it even matter if the Phillies can somehow oust them again in October?

Dave Dombrowski is no stranger to the Braves’ dominance.

Dombrowski was building the Florida Marlins’ roster in 1995 when the Braves began their run of 11 consecutive NL East titles. Atlanta averaged 97 wins per season from 1995 to 2005. And while Hall of Fame general manager John Schuerholz was making the decisions then, Dombrowski draws parallels to what the Braves have done every year since 2018 under Alex Anthopoulos.

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“Very similar in many ways,” said Dombrowski, nearing the end of his fourth season at the Phillies’ helm. “I’m not sure how much of that is a common thread between the people that have been there, but very similar in that they’re deep. They really don’t have a hole in their lineup, for example. Everybody is at least an average player. There’s not somebody that’s a big hole.”

Indeed, it’s the Braves’ organizational depth — the Dodgers’, too, for that matter — that makes them baseball’s model franchise. Because injuries happen over the course of a six-month season. Attrition is real. Rosters that are top-heavy with stars tend to cave in if there aren’t sturdy reinforcements below.

The Braves have used 53 players this season; the Dodgers have cycled through 58. And if their respective talent pools didn’t extend so far down their 40-man rosters and into the upper levels of the minors, the Braves couldn’t have withstood injuries to pitchers Max Fried and Kyle Wright for much of the season, while the Dodgers would’ve folded after losing infielder Gavin Lux and starters Walker Buehler and Dustin May.

Since Dombrowski took over, the Phillies added star power through free agency (Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, and Turner) and pushed the payroll beyond the luxury-tax threshold two years running. But they also deepened the 40-man roster and made changes in player development that translated into gains in the farm system. They went from 82 wins in 2021 to 87 and a wild card last season. Entering the weekend, they were on pace for 88 and the top NL wild-card spot.

They still haven’t caught the Braves, though. At least not in the regular season.

“When we were with the Marlins, we felt the same way,” Dombrowski said. “We finally got to the point where we thought we could compete with them, but it takes a while. You really better be good. And when I say that, you not only better be good at the big-league level. You’ve got to make sure your depth is good within your organization. Because you’re going to compete with a franchise that’s at the top of their game.”

Or, as Phillies owner John Middleton put it, “When you beat the Braves, you haven’t just beaten a good team. You’ve beaten a terrific organization.”

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The Braves are also relentless. Last season, the Phillies went 65-46 after June 3, a 93-win pace. It was still nearly 12 games worse than the Braves, who went 76-34 during that stretch. This year, the Phillies were 54-35 from June 3 through Thursday. The Braves were 63-26.

And much of the Braves’ core — Acuña, Olson, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, Sean Murphy, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies — is under control through at least 2026.

“They’re in a position where, let’s just say you’re expecting to win a World Series a particular year and you don’t, well, they still have the same people running the organization,” Dombrowski said. “That’s something that you really benefit from, how important continuity can be. And the Braves have it and deservedly so. They have a lot going on well for them, and I tip my cap to them.”

It all makes the idea of toppling the Braves in the regular season seem, well, hopeless.

But the playoffs are often a wild card, especially in the wild-card era.

Under Dombrowski, the Marlins never dethroned the Braves as NL East champs. But they did win 92 games in 1997 and gain entry to the playoffs via the wild card. And after sweeping the Giants in the divisional round, they met the 101-win Braves in the NL Championship Series and beat them in six games.

Sound familiar?

The wild-card Phillies went down that road last season, which likely contributes to the Braves’ outward respect for them. And deep down, the Braves can’t possibly want to see them again in October.

Since the Phillies signed Harper in spring training in 2019 — and especially once they hired Dombrowski in the 2019-20 offseason — many club officials have believed the roster is built for the postseason. The basis for that feeling: Stars tend to dominate the short bursts of the playoffs, and the Phillies are flush with stars. It played out that way for them last year.

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In baseball, a division title is the equivalent of winning a distance race. It’s difficult. It takes endurance. It’s an organizational triumph.

But ultimately, it only places you in the pole position for the postseason sprint. It doesn’t guarantee you will run the fastest.

During the Braves’ 1995-2005 divisional dynasty, the Braves won only one World Series. The Phillies, for that matter, won only once during their run of five NL East titles from 2007-11.

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“Look,” Anthopoulos told reporters this week, “at the end of the day, everyone’s goal is to win the World Series and you end up getting judged that way.”

In the end, no matter what happened over the last six months, it’s how the Braves and Phillies will be judged again.

And both teams know it.