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MLB Preview: Phillies vs. Reds odds, picks, prediction

Action Network’s Michael Arinze breaks down Monday’s series opener between the Phillies and the Reds

Noah Syndergaard of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch during the second inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 15, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
Noah Syndergaard of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch during the second inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 15, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)Read moreKirk Irwin / Getty Images
    by Michael Arinze, Action Network
    Published 

David Robertson suffered his first blown save since joining the Phillies as he couldn’t preserve an 8-7 lead in the ninth inning against the Mets.

The Phillies couldn’t wait for the Mets to get out of town. Philadelphia won just five of the 19 games in the season series.

The Phillies should get some reprieve with the lowly Cincinnati Reds (48-71) coming to town for a four-game series. Noah Syndergaard will get the start for the home team while the Reds will counter with Luis Cessa.

Cincinnati will likely utilize Cessa as an opener. Monday will only be his second start and he hasn’t pitched more than two innings in any outing. As a result, we should get a long look at the Reds bullpen, which has the worst ERA in the league at 4.90.

» READ MORE: Phillies’ Bryce Harper says thumb is at ‘85-90%’ strength ahead of rehab assignment

Phillies vs. Reds MLB odds

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Moneyline: CIN (+190) vs. PHI (-250)

Spread: CIN +1.5 (+100) vs. PHI -1.5 (-120)

Total: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)

Phillies vs. Reds probable pitchers

Luis Cessa (3-1, 5.50 ERA) vs. Noah Syndergaard (7-8, 3.95 ERA)

I wouldn’t pay too much attention to Cessa’s 3-1 mark because, according to FanGraphs, he pitched only 24.5% of his 37 2/3 innings in medium or high-leveraged situations compared to Syndergaard, who’s had 61.4% of his 98 innings in a similar spot.

Since June 18th, Cessa has made 14 appearances, and the Reds won just one of those games.

Although it’s a small sample size, the Phillies lineup has had success against Cessa. According to Baseball Savant, the Phillies are hitting .400 with a .451 w0BA in 22 plate appearances.

But since we’re likely to see a heavy dose of Reds relievers, Cincinnati fans have to be very concerned about a bullpen with the worst HR/9 ratio (1.29) and the second-worst walk rate of 4.3 per nine innings.

Facing the Reds couldn’t come at a better time for the Phillies after Sunday’s disappointing collapse against the Mets. And the Phillies couldn’t have a better pitcher on the mound against the Reds than Syndergaard. In seven career starts against the Reds, Syndergaard’s teams are a perfect 7-0 in those outings.

While I certainly like the Phillies to bounce back in this spot, I’m unwilling to lay such a high price at -250.

Instead, I’d look to back the Phillies on the first five run line of -0.5 / -155. We made this exact play seven days ago when Syndergaard faced the Reds. The Phillies led 4-2 after five innings, en route to a 4-3 win.

Phillies vs. Reds pick

Phillies F5 RL -0.5 (-155)

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