Bank on Aaron Nola and the Phillies as a road favorite Wednesday in Chicago

The Chicago Cubs host the Philadelphia Phillies today, and we have Cubs vs. Phillies odds and a prediction for Wednesday’s game.

There are encouraging signs from today’s Phillies starting pitcher, Aaron Nola, and reason to project regression for today’s Cubs starting pitcher, Drew Smyly.

Here’s our prediction and best bet for Wednesday’s Cubs vs. Phillies game.

After a tough start to the season, I’ve seen nothing but encouraging signs from Nola.

His fastball velocity has returned to career norms after lacking in April (closer to 94 mph than 91), and his Stuff+ metrics have improved significantly in recent starts.

(Stuff+ is a metric that quantifies the “nastiness” of a pitch based on its physical characteristics, such as release point, velocity, spin rate and movement).

Nola was also due for more general positive regression (4.38 ERA, 3.51 expected ERA), but he’s combining that with better performance. As a result, He posted the best start of his season last week, where Nola held the hard-hitting Braves to no runs and two hits over six innings.

Nola should only improve as the season progresses.

» READ MORE: With an improving pitching staff, is it time to bet on the surging Phillies?

Conversely, I only see Smyly getting worse.

Smyly has built a magical season on the back of an elite batted-ball profile, but he’s due for some slight regression (3.38 ERA, 3.61 expected ERA), and I think we’ve reached the peak of his market value. There’s only so much you can obtain as a pitcher when you strike out fewer than 20% of batters.

Even including his five innings of shutout ball against the Pirates last week, Smyly has a 4.94 ERA and 5.80 expected FIP over his past five starts. He’s regressing.

I give a hefty starting pitching advantage to the Phillies, something I don’t think the market is factoring into the betting line.

However, the Phillies are still moderate road favorites here.

Why? Because the Phils have significant advantages on offense and in the bullpen.

» READ MORE: Rocket Mortgage Classic: Three longshot bets for the PGA Tour stop at Detroit Golf Club

Regarding the lineup, the Cubs have been pathetic at hitting recently, ranking 25th in OPS (.664) and wRC+ (84) over the past month.

Regarding the bullpen, the Phillies boast a top-five relief core with Jose Alvarado back from injury.

Add it all together, and the Phils have major advantages in three of the four phases of the game on Wednesday (the Cubs are better defensively.

I’ll happily put my money behind the better starting pitcher, bullpen and lineup.

Moneyline: Phillies (-126) vs. Cubs (+108)

Spread: Phillies -1.5 (+125) vs. Cubs +1.5 (-150)

Total: Over 8 (-106) | Under 8 (-114)

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.