Mariners vs. Phillies odds, prediction: Philly’s Taijuan Walker may find trouble with Seattle

Seattle won the series opener vs. the Phillies, 5-3, despite a pitching change that saw Marco Gonzales swap spots in the rotation with Logan Gilbert. Gilbert will now pitch the second game in the series and be up against Philadelphia’s Taijuan Walker.

Walker enters this contest with a 2-1 record and a 3.80 ERA. However, there are some warning signs as he continues giving opposing hitters free passes to first base.

After four starts this season, Walker’s BB/9 ratio is up to 5.06. That’s quite a jump for a pitcher with a 2.90 BB/9 career mark.

In this preview, I’ll share why it might make sense to fade Walker in this spot.

Odds provided by BetMGM

Moneyline: SEA (-120) vs. PHI (+100)

Spread: SEA -1.5 (+140) vs. PHI +1.5 (-165)

Total: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)

It is surprising to see Walker struggle with his command after exhibiting such exquisite control for much of his career. Interestingly, he seems to have fallen in love with his splitter. According to Baseball Savant, he’s increased its usage (33%) by almost 6% compared with last season (27.6%).

I can’t recall when I last saw a pitcher feature their splitter more than your traditional four-seam fastball. Walker’s four-seamer usage is down to 22.3% after throwing it 29.6% of the time last year.

For whatever reason, he’s not comfortable with the pitch despite opposing hitters batting .167 against the four-seamer with a .125 xBA and a 31% whiff rate.

But if you look at his first-pitch strike rate, Walker is down to 58.4% after posting a 62.7% mark in the previous campaign.

Consistently falling behind hitters is undoubtedly one way to increase the number of walks you dish out. That’s why Walker’s advanced metrics signal some regression, given his 4.64 FIP and 4.53 xFIP.

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In contrast, Gilbert has been the antithesis of Walker. He’s issuing just 1.59 walks per nine innings, and his 3.10 FIP and 2.93 xFIP suggest we can see further improvement to his 3.57 ERA.

Gilbert has also had success against this current Philadelphia roster. In 27 plate appearances, the Phillies are hitting just .111 against him with a .120 xBA, a .200 xSLG and an average launch angle of 13.5 degrees.

As for the Mariners roster, in 22 plate appearances against Walker, it has a .208 xBA with a .418 xSLG and an average launch angle of 29.1 degrees.

And with our Action Labs Weather Report projecting wind gusts blowing out to right-center field between five and six mph, the Mariners could have a chance to get some lift and drive the ball against Walker.

The Mariners are in one of my favorite spots this season as a road favorite. Our Action Labs Database shows that teams in this spot are 88-44 for 16.34 units.

This has been one of the most profitable angles in baseball this season, and given the possible regression we highlighted with Walker, I’ll back the Mariners here as a -120 favorite.

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