Phillies vs. Reds prediction: Will Cincy’s Lodolo carve up Philly again?

The Philadelphia Phillies’ first homestand of the 2023 season went far better than their first road trip. But that doesn’t mean it was a resounding success.

The defending National League champions split six games against the Reds and Marlins. Throw in a 1-5 trip to Texas and New York to begin the season, and Philadelphia stands at 4-8 overall and already is 4.5 games behind the first-place Atlanta Braves in the National League East.

The glass-is-half-full outlook: The Phillies had the same 4-8 record after 12 games last season but rallied to make the playoffs and reach the World Series for the first time since 2009.

So Philadelphia doesn’t need to push the panic button just yet. That said, it’s difficult to invest in the Phillies right now given that only one team — the Detroit Tigers (2-9) — has cost bettors more money to this point.

That’s why we’re joining the MLB wagering community in backing Cincinnati in Thursday’s opener of a four-game series.

Odds updated as of 12:05 p.m. ET on April 13.

When Thursday’s Phillies-Reds matchup hit the betting board Wednesday evening, Cincinnati was a modest -120 favorite at most sportsbooks. Now the price is as high as -140 in some spots.

It’s an interesting line adjustment given that the Reds (4-7) have won as many games as the Phillies; they’re coming off a 1-5 road trip (including dropping two of three in Philadelphia); and they’ve lost six of seven since starting the season 3-1.

One of Cincinnati’s recent setbacks was Saturday’s 3-2 loss to the Phillies. That game featured a pitching matchup of Philadelphia’s Bailey Falter vs. the Reds’ Nick Lodolo.

The pitching matchup Thursday: Falter vs. Lodolo.

So why are the Reds laying the same odds that Philadelphia was laying five days ago when these two 25-year-old Southern California-born southpaws squared off? And why are wagering on Cincinnati?

Because Lodolo and the Reds dominated Saturday’s game in Philly for 8 1/2 innings before the bullpen coughed up three runs in the bottom of the ninth.

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Lodolo’s numbers from that outing: seven shutout innings, three hits, two walks and a career-high 12 strikeouts.

Lodolo has now fanned 21 hitters in two starts totalling 12 innings. And going back to late August last season, he’s allowed three runs or fewer in nine consecutive starts while pitching to a 2.44 ERA with a 75-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Immediately prior to this nine-start stretch, Lodolo got touched up for four runs in 5 1/3 innings at Citizens Bank Park (a game the Phillies won 7-6). But six days before that, he baffled Philadelphia at home, once again twirling seven shutout innings in a 1-0 victory.

As for Falter, he nearly matched Lodolo’s effort Saturday. After allowing a first-inning run on three hits and a leadoff single to start the second inning, he retired the final 12 Reds he faced.

Throw in a strong effort in a 2-1 loss at Texas in his season debut, and Falter has given up just three runs in 10 1/3 innings. And while he has just five strikeouts, he hasn’t issued a walk.

As solid as those stats are, it doesn’t change the fact that Lodolo outpitched Falter in Philadelphia on Saturday. And if Cincinnati’s bullpen did its job in the ninth inning, Lodolo would enter Thursday’s contest 2-0 and Falter would be 0-2.

Are we worried about the Reds’ relievers spoiling another Lodolo gem? Hard not to be, considering those relievers have a 5.26 ERA on the season.

But that concern is offset by the fact that Falter almost certainly won’t finish six innings Thursday. And whenever he departs, he’ll be handing the ball to a bullpen that’s even worse than Cincinnati’s: Phillies relievers have a 6.65 ERA, third-worst in MLB.

In what projects to be another low-scoring, tightly contested game, bet on Lodolo and the Reds to finish what they couldn’t in Philadelphia five days ago.

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