Let’s try to figure out how much money Ranger Suárez will make in free agency
Can the Phillies afford to re-sign him? Can they afford not to? In all my years covering baseball’s labor market, Suárez’s market value as a pitcher is the most difficult to project.
I’d love to climb atop a soapbox and scream for the Phillies to re-sign Ranger Suárez. It’s an easy case to make right now. But, the truth is, I have no idea if it will make sense for the Phillies to do whatever it takes to keep their 29-year-old lefty in the fold beyond this season.
Nobody does.
Will it take four years and $90 million? Five years and $100 million? Six years and $120 million?
Less?
More?
All are in the range of potential outcomes for a guy who might be the most distinctive pitcher in the majors. He’s certainly the most distinctive pitcher who is four months away from free agency. Is he the guy who seems to pitch six or seven innings every time he steps on the mound, or is he the guy who has never pitched 160 innings in a season? Is he the guy who requires an annual trip to the injured list, or is he the guy who has never been seriously injured and has the skill set of someone who can pitch into his mid-to-late 30’s? Is he the guy who currently looks like one of the most dependable pitchers in the majors, or is he the guy who looked that way last season and then suddenly didn’t?
Good luck finding any comps for Suárez. There’s a list of guys you can cite who will make Scott Boras’ head explode, and there’s a list of guys who will have general managers laugh you out of the room.
Consider:
He is one of only 32 pitchers in the majors to have at least seven starts of seven-plus scoreless innings over the last three years. The vast majority of that group are your name-brand, top-of-the-rotation, workhorse starters. But Nick Pivetta and Jose Quintana are also there.
Suárez’s 2.20 ERA this season ranks 10th among big league starters with at least 50 innings pitched. Above him are Kodai Senga, Nate Eovaldi, Max Fried, and Jacob deGrom, all of whom have recently signed contracts averaging $25-plus million per year that run through their 35-year-old season or later. Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, and Hunter Brown would all surely land deals worth at least that much were they eligible for free agency. But all of those pitchers are power strikeout arms: Suárez’s K rate is the lowest of the group by far. He also has thrown the fewest innings by far.
Suárez is one of 16 starting pitchers with at least 450 innings pitched and an ERA+ of 117 since 2022. He’s clearly in a different tier from the guys at the top of the list: Fried (157 ERA+ in 532⅓) innings, Skubal (152 in 480⅓), Zack Wheeler (140 in 633), Corbin Burnes (133 in 654⅓), Gerrit Cole (132 in 504⅔), Framer Valdez (131 in 671⅔), Logan Webb (127 in 707⅓). The bottom half of that group includes Michael Wacha and Sonny Gray, both of whom look comparable to Suárez from certain vantage points. But Wacha signed for three years and $51 million at the age of 33 this offseason, while Gray signed for three years and $75 million at the age of 34 in 2024.
What do we make of any of it? It’s the riddle of Ranger, and it puts the Phillies in an incredibly difficult spot as they try to forecast their future with him.
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Can they afford to re-sign him?
Can they afford not to?
At this point, how can they tell?
In all my years covering baseball’s labor market, Suárez’s market value is the most difficult pitcher to project. That’s true whether you are trying to figure out his initial ask, the market’s response to it, or the Phillies’ walk-away price.
There are a number of variables involved.
1) Suárez is as important to the Phillies as any pitcher not named Zack Wheeler, and that has been the case for much of the last three years.
The gem that he pitched on Wednesday in a 4-2 win over the Marlins was everything you’ve come to expect from the 29-year-old lefty: seven innings, six baserunners, one run, eight strikeouts. It was his third straight start of seven-plus innings and two or fewer runs, and his fifth of the season.
After allowing seven earned runs in his first start off the injured list in early May, he has allowed a total of seven earned runs in the eight starts since. That’s a 1.17 ERA in 53⅔ innings, for all of you math majors. If Suárez repeats the last eight starts over the next 18 or 19 that he figures to make, he’ll at least have a Cy Young argument.
2) Suárez will reach free agency heading into his 30-year-old season, putting him on the young side. At the same time, he’ll be on the market with a group of higher-pedigree pitchers that includes Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez and Michael King, along with a host of upper/middle of the rotation players like Shota Imanaga, Jack Flaherty, Senga, Bassitt and Tyler Mahle, just to name a few.
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3) No pitcher over the last several offseasons has signed a deal for three-plus years at a $20-plus million AAV without ever having thrown 160 innings in a season.
Suárez is truly one of a kind. I would guess the floor is something in the range of Eduardo Rodriguez, who signed with the Diamondbacks for four years and $80 million in 2024.
Rodriguez’s numbers in his three years before signing with the Diamondbacks are nearly identical to Suárez’s 2022-24.
Innings: Suárez — 431, Rodriguez — 401⅓
ERA/ERA+: Suárez — 3.74, 111, Rodriguez — 4.04, 108
Opponents’ batting line: Suárez — .252/.316/.396, Rodriguez — .252/.311/.401
Hard hit percentage: Suárez — 35.3, Rodriguez — 36.1
K%/BB%: Suárez — 21.5/8.0, Rodriguez — 23.7/7.6
On the one hand, Rodriguez had a sixth-place Cy Young finish in 2019, when he logged 203⅓ innings with a 128 ERA+ for the Red Sox. On the other hand, Suárez has shown a level of year-to-year and start-to-start consistency that has largely eluded Rodriguez. He also has one of the best ground ball rates in the majors, which tends to age well.
The Wacha-Gray continuum would work, except Gray has always profiled as a top-of-the-rotation strikeout arm, while Wacha has been an oft-injured, lower-middle-of-the-rotation guy who entered free agency with his first season of 140-plus innings since 2017.
Given the abundance of options on this year’s market and the Phillies’ unique perspective on Suárez’s value, I think there’s a chance they could keep him in the fold for a reasonable number (say, five years and $90 million).
But it’s a safe bet Boras will be aiming higher than that.