Padres pounce on Mick Abel, hold off the Phillies to take Game 1 of doubleheader

One strike.

That was all Mick Abel needed. One measly strike, one pitch anywhere close to the zone, and Abel might’ve sidestepped trouble Wednesday, two innings into the Phillies’ day-night doubleheader against the Padres.

Instead, the rookie right-hander threw a sinker up and in for a ball, then spiked a curveball in the dirt. Low-and-away slider, high-and-tight heater — ball and ball. Over and over, again and again. Six consecutive balls, eight of nine, 12 of 15, one walk leading to another and another.

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Next thing he knew, Abel went from having Padres No. 9 hitter Elias Díaz in a two-out, two-strike hole to trudging back to the dugout after allowing five runs and walking five batters in 1⅔ innings of a 6-4 loss in his sixth career start for the Phillies.

The question now: Will there be a seventh? Especially since it’s … (checking calendar) … “July-ish,” and top prospect Andrew Painter is healthy and pitching in triple A.

“We haven’t talked about it,” manager Rob Thomson said 10 minutes after the game and six days before Abel’s next scheduled start. “And I haven’t talked to Mick, either. I’m sure he’s disappointed in the start. But, yeah, we’ll talk about it.”

One scenario not under discussion, apparently: Bringing up Painter before the All-Star break.

In the offseason, as the Phillies scripted Painter’s return to competition after losing two seasons to a torn elbow ligament and Tommy John surgery, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the can’t-miss kid would not make his major league debut until “July-ish.”

Thomson recently offered more details, noting that the Phillies intend to keep Painter in triple A through the All-Star break (he’s scheduled to start Thursday night for Lehigh Valley) before giving him a breather and assessing the situation.

Are the Phillies still committed to that plan?

“Yes,” Thomson said.

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Any chance of deviating?

“I don’t think so,” Thomson said. “No.”

In that case, Abel would take his next turn, scheduled for Tuesday night in San Francisco. It would be his last start before the break.

Even so, Abel’s short-term future is fascinating. He’s filling in for injured starter Aaron Nola at present, but seems to lack a spot in the Phillies’ 2026 rotation, regardless of whether they re-sign free agent Ranger Suárez.

Maybe Abel’s fastball and curveball could play up in a relief role down the stretch. Or maybe, 29 days from the trade deadline, he’s best deployed as a chip to help bring back bullpen help.

Fascinating, right?

It’s mostly moot if Abel doesn’t pitch well. Presumably, then, the Phillies will do a thorough review of what happened against the Padres. And to hear Abel tell it, it’s as straightforward as it looked.

“Obviously my command got away from me,” he said. “I think I started to try to do a little too much, you know? I got into some leverage counts and was trying too hard to make the pitches, if that makes sense, and just not naturally letting it happen.”

Maybe there’s an easy explanation. Abel was pitching for the first time in 11 days. He was supposed to start Friday night in Atlanta but got scratched after warming up, then sitting through a 2½-hour rain delay.

Abel threw an extra bullpen session between starts in an attempt to stay sharp. He certainly appeared rusty.

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But Abel also battled control problems in the minors. He has been more precise this season, especially since his major league debut in mid-May. He didn’t issue a walk in 11⅓ innings through two starts and only four in 23⅓ innings before Wednesday.

Thomson is willing to believe, then, that it was aberrational.

“I just chalk it up to one of those days,” Thomson said. “He’s been good here. Very few walks in his first couple outings, but he’s fell down a little bit here lately. So, we’ve got to fix it.”

Abel retired five of the first six batters before yielding a walk and a single with one out in the second inning. He walked Díaz to load the bases, then walked Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill to force in runs.

Up stepped Manny Machado, and once again, Abel was a strike from getting out of the inning. But rather than burying a curveball, he left it over the plate for Machado to bang to left field for a three-run double.

And with that, with 16 innings left in the doubleheader, Abel’s day was over, leaving him as the sixth Phillies pitcher since 1991 to allow at least five walks in less than two innings of a start, joining Garrett Stephenson (1998), Matt Beech (1997), Rafael Quirico (1996), Tommy Greene (1995), and José De Jesús (1991).

“It was pretty apparent that his feel wasn’t there,” catcher J.T. Realmuto said. “He just wasn’t commanding really either side of the plate, up, down, in or out. He was missing kind of all over the plate, so I’m sure there was something feel-wise that wasn’t right.”

Go back to the at-bat against Tatis. All five pitches to the righty-hitting Padres star were up and in, one of which knocked him down and nearly hit his bat as he hit the deck.

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And the more pitches Abel threw, the worse it got.

“I had all the confidence in the world that I could make the pitches,” Abel said. “But sometimes trying too hard just doesn’t work in your favor.

“It’s just taught me even more about how important preparation is for every time I go out there. It was definitely tough getting scratched in Atlanta, but that’s no excuse for going out and doing what I did today.”

If it happens again, Abel might run out of chances.