One-stop shopping at the trade deadline: Three teams that could be a match for Phillies’ biggest needs

In the waning days of June, even as the season reaches its mathematical midpoint, baseball’s trade market is still a living, breathing organism, ever evolving and impossible to forecast.

And yet, some teams’ intentions are cast in stone.

The Dodgers are buyers. The Pirates will sell (just not Paul Skenes). And executives across the sport anticipate the Phillies will obtain a late-inning reliever, with one rival talent evaluator expecting they will be “all-in” on that pursuit.

It’s a familiar Phillies trade-deadline search because it’s their annual postseason shortcoming. They were torpedoed by the bullpen in last year’s divisional series vanquishing by the Mets and in two tide-turning losses in Arizona in the 2023 National League Championship Series.

» READ MORE: Can starters provide relief? Sizing up who could fill a need in the Phillies’ bullpen for the playoffs.

So, Dave Dombrowski will keep looking to fix the bullpen. He traded for a reliever at three of his four previous deadlines as president of the Phillies’ baseball operations. Let’s zoom in on two swaps as they relate to what might happen before this July 31 deadline.

Robertson and Estévez were both in the last year of their contracts. Maybe Dombrowski had the Robertson trade in mind last July when he said the return for Estévez was “probably a little more than you like to give up for a rental.”

But hey, that’s what all-in teams do. And the Phillies were thrilled to land Estévez without touching the top prospect trio of Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller, and Justin Crawford.

A month from now, three closers on expiring contracts — Ryan Helsley (Cardinals), Aroldis Chapman (Red Sox), and Kyle Finnegan (Nationals) — might be available. Or maybe not. St. Louis and Boston are part of wild-card races that are as crowded as the Schuylkill Expressway at rush hour.

The Cardinals, in particular, face a tough call. Despite the front office’s plan to reset the roster and contend in 2026, they entered the weekend at 44-38, with a plus-30 run differential, and one game out of the third NL wild card. Their postseason odds: 32.9%, according to Fangraphs.

Maybe the Cardinals will chart a middle ground, holding on to players whom they control beyond the season and trading the ones they don’t. In that case, they could move Helsley, whose fastball is getting hit more than usual en route to a 3.54 ERA, up from 2.04 last season. But he’s still throwing some of the highest octane in the sport.

If the Phillies could land Helsley for the 2025 equivalent of Brown — say, 23-year-old righty Jean Cabrera, their No. 13 prospect in Baseball America’s rankings — they would have to consider it

» READ MORE: Early Phillies trade deadline preview: Bullpen help will be costly. Here are some relievers to watch.

It figures to cost more to acquire relievers with team control beyond this season, such as David Bednar (Pirates), Félix Bautista (Orioles), and Jhoan Durán (Twins).

But there’s also a model for teams to receive a better haul in the rental market. At last year’s deadline, the Marlins tethered walk-year closer Tanner Scott to another player (fellow reliever Bryan Hoeing). That could be a wise strategy for the Nationals with Finnegan, or even the Sox with Chapman.

And the Phillies have another shortcoming that was evident even before this week’s 26-inning scoreless streak. Left fielder Max Kepler, batting .209 with a .683 OPS through Thursday, hasn’t started against a left-hander since April 2. Otto Kemp is getting a look in left field against lefties, but he’s a natural infielder.

Rival evaluators expect the Phillies to pursue a righty-hitting outfielder to at least platoon with Kepler. And considering Kepler’s numbers against righties (.205 average, .696 OPS), they could seek an overall upgrade in left field.

It’s worth wondering, then, if the Phillies could go one-stop shopping for a reliever and an outfielder. Here’s a look at three teams that could be a potential match, depending on the path they choose at the deadline:

There isn’t an actual white flag flying over Fenway Park. It sure seemed like it, though, after the Red Sox’ stunning June 15 trade of Rafael Devers.

Led by a precocious crop of position players and facing the wrath of an agitated fan base, the Sox insist they’re trying to hang in the wild-card race in the Pop Tart-flat American League. But they’re also addicted to the .500 mark, never going more than three games over or five games under.

The Sox could delay picking a trade-deadline lane until after they face the Cubs, Phillies, and Dodgers in a potentially determinative nine-game stretch coming out of the All-Star break.

» READ MORE: Otto Kemp is the Phillies’ best righty-hitting option in left field. That means the search likely will go on.

If it goes poorly, it doesn’t make sense for them to hold on to Chapman. He still throws smoke and has chopped his walk rate in half since last season. But he’s 37 and not a candidate for the $21-million-plus free-agent qualifying offer because he might actually accept it.

By himself, Chapman would likely fetch a midlevel prospect. But the Red Sox also have a surplus of outfielders, possibly matching them up with the Phillies’ need and enabling them to extract more for Chapman.

Lefty-hitting Jarren Duran is the Sox’s biggest outfield chip despite regressing after a breakout 2024 season. But a better fit for the Phillies might be Rob Refsnyder, who bats right-handed and mashes lefties (.569 slugging, .972 OPS). He also played for Rob Thomson with the Yankees.

Potential trade: Chapman and Refsnyder for right-hander Mick Abel.

(There might be a similar alternative in Washington, where the Nationals could package Finnegan and righty-hitting outfielder Alex Call, a .333 hitter with an .859 OPS against lefties.)

A few days ago, Twins president Derek Falvey told reporters that being a deadline seller “is not my focus right now by any means.”

Key words: right now.

Because the Twins entered the weekend in an 11-losses-in-14-games spiral. It’s a testament to the rampant mediocrity in the AL that they were only 2½ games out of a wild-card spot.

The Twins have time to pull out of their nosedive. But with the Pohlad family trying to sell the team, why not move closer Jhoan Durán — and his two additional years of team control — for future pieces?

The Twins have an excellent bullpen, with Griffin Jax, Louie Varland, and underrated lefty Danny Coulombe. But Durán is the star. His fastball averages 100.2 mph; nearly one-third of the swings against him are whiffs.

» READ MORE: The Phillies set goals for Trea Turner in 2025, and he has bought in: ‘He’s doing everything we asked’

In Durán, the Phillies would have a power arm at the end of the game, pushing Orion Kerkering, Matt Strahm, Jordan Romano, and whichever starters move to the bullpen in the postseason (Jesús Luzardo, perhaps) into the sixth, seventh, and eighth innings.

Dombrowski could pull off a blockbuster by prying away center fielder Byron Buxton, too. It would be risky. Buxton has played more than 100 games in a season only once since 2017. But he has been healthy lately and is on a 34-homer, 26-steal pace.

Getting both Durán and Buxton would likely require trading Miller or Crawford, unless the Phillies picked up most of the $45 million on Buxton’s contract through 2028 to lessen the prospect cost. They’re already paying the 110% penalty for eclipsing the highest luxury-tax threshold this season. But given the lack of offense among outfielders across the sport, it might be worth it.

The Twins could dangle switch-hitting Willi Castro, who is in his walk year. Castro plays almost every infield and outfield position and was batting .303 with an .888 OPS against lefties through Thursday.

Potential trade: Durán and Castro for Abel, infield prospect Aroon Escobar, and catcher Rafael Marchán.

Entering play Wednesday, major league outfielders were averaging a .721 OPS, which would be the fifth-lowest mark in 82 seasons.

Last year, outfield OPS was .715. In 2022, it was .709.

The Phillies aren’t alone, then, in their search for more offense in the outfield. You can second-guess the Kepler signing, but then you’d also have to concede that none of the non-Juan Soto free-agent options were good buys. Not Anthony Santander, nor Tyler O’Neill, nor Michael Conforto, nor suspended Jurickson Profar.

And beyond Kyle Tucker and maybe Cody Bellinger (if he opts out of $25 million next season), the upcoming free-agent outfield class is thin, too.

» READ MORE: The Phillies’ outfield production is among the majors’ worst since Bryce Harper moved. Can they fix it?

The trade market is equally unappealing. Outfield-needy teams will continue to monitor the Angels’ Taylor Ward (19 homers; .208 average) and the White Sox’ Luis Robert Jr. (.184 average and .584 OPS; .268 and .870 marks vs. lefties).

If the Rangers fall out of the AL wild-card race, they could move on from righty-hitting Adolis García, although they wouldn’t be selling high. The 32-year-old entered the weekend with only nine homers and a .393 slugging percentage.

But García isn’t far removed from averaging 30 homers over the last four seasons, including 39 in 2023. He smashed five homers in the ALCS that year, too. And he’s under control through next season.

The Rangers could pair him in a deal with 39-year-old reliever Chris Martin, a World Series winner with the Braves in 2021, or former Phillies lefty Hoby Milner.

Potential trade: García and Martin for Escobar and Cabrera.