Phillies second-half preview: Storylines to watch, trade deadline forecast, and more

They've had bullpen woes, drama in the outfield, and injuries to stars, but the Phillies are still in first place. Let’s look at what to expect over the final two and a half months of the season.

The Phillies' Bryce Harper was finally heating up before the All-Star break.Read moreYong Kim / Staff Photographer

by Scott Lauber and Lochlahn March

Updated July 17, 2025, 4:13 p.m. ET

Published July 17, 2025, 2:35 p.m. ET

Even with Bryce Harper out with injuries for more than a month, top bullpen arm José Alvarado serving an 80-game suspension for PEDs, and ever-durable Aaron Nola dealing with his first stint on the injured list since 2017, the Phillies are still holding on to first place in the National League East heading into the second half.

The path hasn’t been smooth. While the starting rotation has been All-Star caliber, the bats have been inconsistent. There have been bullpen woes and drama in the outfield.

And already 96 games into the season, the Phillies find themselves in an all-too-familiar predicament: in need of at least one reliever and likely an outfielder, too.

It’s the same shopping list they had a year ago, and the same one they had over the offseason. And with the trade deadline fast approaching, the Phillies have less than two weeks to decide how aggressive they will be in patching those holes this year.

Let’s take a look at what to expect from the Phillies in the second half:

Which Phillie has been the best story of the first half?

Scott Lauber: Can I cheat and give you three? Since May 1, Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, and Ranger Suárez rank first, fourth, and fifth among all pitchers in ERA. The Phillies are 35-16 when they start, 20-25 when they don’t. Nothing will supersede keeping them healthy down the stretch.

Lochlahn March: There have been some very high highs and very low lows for Jesús Luzardo, who was firmly in the Cy Young conversation until two dismal starts tanked his numbers. But after determining that he may have been tipping his pitches and adjusting, he seems to have recaptured his early season form. The Phillies bet big that he would bounce back from his 2024 injury, and so far Luzardo has been the most impactful offseason addition.

Which Phillie has been the biggest underperformer of the first half?

Lauber: The best ability is availability, and José Alvarado has been unavailable since May 16 because of an 80-game drug suspension. The big lefty is eligible to return in mid-August but is barred from the postseason, leaving a ginormous void in a bullpen that was always going to need trade-deadline reinforcement.

March: Replacing two high-leverage arms in Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez for the price of one in Jordan Romano was always going to be a bit risky, especially when Romano is coming off an injury-shortened season. Romano hasn’t been able to find his footing on a consistent basis, striking out the side one night and blowing a save the next. At this point, it’s hard to picture Romano taking the ball in a save situation in the playoffs.

What will happen at the trade deadline?

Lauber: It would be a Villanova-beats-Georgetown-level upset if the Phillies don’t get bullpen help. They could go for a rental (such as the Nationals’ Kyle Finnegan), a long-term closer (say, Twins’ Jhoan Durán), or something in between (David Bednar of the Pirates). But they’ll definitely get at least one reliever.

March: I think the Phillies will go all-in for bullpen reinforcements. They will trade for at least one high-leverage arm, and they will part with some big pieces to do it, like Mick Abel and 18-year-old catching phenom Eduardo Tait.

What storyline are you most interested in for the second half?

Lauber: Bryce Harper can lift an offense like an aircraft carrier — and was finally heating up before the break, going 7-for-16 with six extra-base hits in the last four games. But he also missed 23 games last month with an inflamed right wrist that will need to be managed through the second half. Can he stay healthy and be productive? There’s no bigger question for the Phillies’ lineup.

March: How will Alvarado impact the bullpen once he is able to return from his suspension on Aug. 19? He is ineligible to pitch in the postseason, so it will be interesting to see how Rob Thomson deploys him down the stretch. And will Alvarado return from his suspension in the same shape he was in earlier this year?

Which young player has the potential to make the biggest impact in the second half?

Lauber: It’s difficult not to say Andrew Painter, the Phillies’ most-hyped pitching prospect since Cole Hamels. But the answer is Justin Crawford. With outfield production lacking, Crawford is batting .331 in triple A. Andrew Benintendi helped the Dave Dombrowski Red Sox in 2016. Crawford can have a similar impact now for the Phillies.

March: Abel, because I view him as the piece most likely to be moved at the trade deadline due to the Phillies’ current overabundance of starting pitching. If Abel is traded, whatever return he fetches could go a long way in fueling a deep Phillies playoff run.

Which Phillie is the X factor for a deep playoff run?

Lauber: If we’re talking strictly about postseason, here’s an outside-the-box answer: lefty reliever Jesús Luzardo. OK, bear with me. Think of all the menacing left-handed hitters on other NL contenders. Juan Soto ... Shohei Ohtani ... Freddie Freeman ... Kyle Tucker ... Pete Crow-Armstrong. Teams don’t need five starters in the playoffs. With Nola expected to return from the injured list next month, maybe Luzardo can move to the bullpen in October and get key outs late in games.

March: I’m staying inside-the-box and going with the obvious: Harper. The Phillies’ postseason chances depend on whether Harper can prevent a recurrence of the wrist injury that has plagued him over the last two seasons. He can change the course of a game or even a series with a single swing, and the Phillies need him healthy. Like Harper said himself, he is “really good.”