Three Phillies trades we’d like to see before the deadline

Let’s make a deal.

OK, so baseball’s trade deadline is still four weeks away. A lot will change between now and July 31. Some teams will wave the white flag; others will choose to go for it — or at least stand pat. And because only eight teams are more than five games out of a wild card, the market won’t fully crystallize until the last possible day.

Around here, though, we know in which lane the Phillies are driving. With a veteran core that’s been together four years, a lights-out starting rotation, and a $300-plus million payroll, the time is now. It’s World Series or bust.

» READ MORE: One-stop shopping at the trade deadline: Three teams that could be a match for Phillies’ biggest needs

The Phillies’ needs are evident, too. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will be shopping for at least one late-inning reliever. The Phillies also rank 22nd and 21st in OPS from left and center field, respectively, even after Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler homered Wednesday night.

So … let’s make a deal!

With the Phillies getting the day off Thursday, Inquirer baseball writers Scott Lauber and Lochlahn March and columnist David Murphy got together to suggest three trades that we would like to see before the deadline. (Dombrowski can thank us later.)

The Phillies trade INF Aidan Miller to the Twins for RHP Jhoan Duran and OF/INF Willi Castro.

When it comes to relievers, Dombrowski has a type.

It looks a lot like Duran.

Power arm? Duran’s fastball averages 100.2 mph. Swing-and-miss stuff? With that heater, a splinker (splitter with sinker-like movement), and curveball, he has a 31.6% whiff rate. October success? He hasn’t allowed a run in five postseason innings, unlike Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase (playoff ERA: 5.14).

» READ MORE: Early Phillies trade deadline preview: Bullpen help will be costly. Here are some relievers to watch.

Durán also is 27 and controllable through 2027, the last year of Zack Wheeler’s contract and the unofficial duration of this particular Phillies window.

So why would the Twins trade him? There’s a good chance they won’t. Because despite losing 18 of 25 games, they entered Thursday only 4½ games out of a wild card in the American League. But they have a negative run differential, and according to FanGraphs, only a 18.6% chance of making the playoffs.

The Twins would seem more inclined to trade Castro, a versatile switch-hitter in his walk year who hits lefties (.290 average, .851 OPS) and plays left field and center. For the right return, though, they’d have to consider moving Duran, too, especially with Griffin Jax and Louis Varland as closer alternatives.

And only for a closer of Duran’s caliber, who could be plugged into the ninth inning for not one but three World Series runs, the Phillies would have to seriously think about sacrificing Miller, a 21-year-old shortstop and their best positional prospect.

Dombrowski hasn’t dealt such a touted player since he swapped Yoán Moncada to land Chris Sale, who threw the World Series-clinching pitch for the Red Sox in 2018.

You can easily imagine Duran doing so for the Phillies.

The Phillies trade RHP Mick Abel, RHP Jean Cabrera, and INF Aroon Escobar to the Orioles for RHP Félix Bautista.

Every general manager in baseball knows the Phillies need a high-leverage bullpen arm. That means that they will not come cheap. And the price will be even higher for Bautista, who comes with two additional years of team control.

Bautista, 30, was an All-Star and American League Reliever of the Year in 2023. He missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery but has put up a 2.73 ERA and struck out 43 in 29⅔ innings since returning. Bautista can light up the radar gun with his 97.3 mph fastball, and his splitter has an impressive whiff rate of 55.9%.

The Orioles are shaping up to be sellers at the deadline after a disappointing first half that has them in last place in the American League East. Their urgent need? Starting pitching. Good thing the Phillies have an overabundance of that at the moment. Though Abel has faltered over his last few starts, the issues largely have been with his command, not with stuff or velocity. He’s a young, controllable starting pitcher, one more likely to help the Orioles than the Phillies, as it stands.

» READ MORE: How bold should Dave Dombrowski be at the trade deadline? A lot depends on Bryce Harper’s wrist.

To round out the package, Cabrera is a starter at double-A Reading with a 3.78 ERA over 15 starts. Cabrera, 23, is ranked the Phillies’ No. 12 prospect by MLB Pipeline. Single-A Clearwater second baseman Aroon Escobar, 20, is their No. 6 prospect. He is slashing .282/.373/.444 in 66 games this season, which also happens to be the most he’s played since the Phillies signed him in 2022.

It’s possible that the Orioles won’t part with Bautista, in the hope that they will contend again in 2026. But three of the Phillies’ top 12 prospects could be hard to resist. And if you’re the Phillies, this is the type of price you’ll have to pay on July 31 if you’re truly all-in.

The Phillies trade Abel and RHP Taijuan Walker to the Nationals for RHP Kyle Finnegan and OF Alex Call.

Get excited, baby. The bigger the move, the bigger the problem for the Phillies in the long run. Aroldis Chapman would look great, as would Durán and Clase. But all three are going to command a package of prospects the Phillies simply can’t afford to part with.

Beyond that trio of closers, there are far too many red flags. Ryan Helsley (Cardinals), Pete Fairbanks (Rays), David Bednar (Pirates) come with way too much uncertainty to warrant parting with anybody the Phillies think they might live to regret. Instead, Dombrowski should identify players who can fill a clear role and then rank them in reverse order of asking price.

» READ MORE: The Phillies need an MVP Bryce Harper and Otto Kemp in the lineup ... and even then they need more

Call is a rotational outfielder with a solid right-handed bat with defensive ability the fielding metrics like in center field. Finnegan is a sixth- or seventh-inning guy on a World Series team, but he at least has shown he can throw strikes and get results if thrust into the closer’s role.

My sense is that folks on the outside looking in are wildly inflating Abel’s trade value — it shouldn’t be any different than it was before this season, especially after Wednesday’s debacle against the Padres. The Nationals are the type of team that can talk themselves into seeing if he’s more comfortable throwing strikes in a pitcher’s park.

I’m including Walker mostly because I think the Phillies should find a team in need of a cheap fifth starter and offer to pay all but $2 million of his salary for next season.

The moral of the story: Don’t expect too much out of this year’s deadline.