Trade deadline preview: Dave Dombrowski on the Phillies’ biggest roster needs and their X-factor

Last July, when the Phillies acquired left fielder Austin Hays four days before the trade deadline, Dave Dombrowski gave this explanation for the move:

“[Brandon] Marsh has not hit left-handed pitching at all. We felt comfortable to have a defensive player in center field in [Johan] Rojas or [Cristian] Pache. But all of a sudden, we were playing two defensive players against a left-hander, in left field and center field. And you can get by with that at times. But as you look at our ballclub, we were a little susceptible to left-handed pitching in the outfield.”

Sound familiar?

A year later, Phillies center fielders were batting .235 and slugging .309 against left-handed pitchers entering the weekend. Somehow, their left fielders were even worse against lefties, with a .178 average and slugging .278.

» READ MORE: One-stop shopping at the trade deadline: Three teams that could be a match for Phillies’ biggest needs

Surely, then, the Phillies will be in the market for a righty-hitting outfielder — this year’s version of Hays, only healthier — before July 31. Right?

“I don’t think it’s too similar,” Dombrowski said in a recent sit-down with The Inquirer. “I think the thing you have to realize is offense is down. It’s hard to find guys to put up numbers. I mean, it just is.”

He isn’t wrong. Through Thursday, the major league-wide batting average was .245, which would be the fifth-lowest mark since MLB lowered the mound in 1968. In left field and center, league-average slugging was .399 and .387, respectively, tied for third- and fifth-lowest in 57 years.

Offensively, even at traditionally productive positions in the outfield, it isn’t a pretty picture.

But even within this depressed run-scoring environment, the Phillies are lacking in the outfield. They ranked 22nd and tied for 21st in slugging in left field (.353) and center (.341). Max Kepler and Marsh were at .381 and .384, a smidge below league average. And manager Rob Thomson prefers not to start them against lefties.

Maybe righty-swinging rookie Otto Kemp will provide a jolt against lefties. (With Bryce Harper back from the injured list, most of Kemp’s playing time figures to come in left field.) Maybe Marsh finally plays his way into an everyday role. He was batting .349 and slugging .508 with an .876 OPS in 69 plate appearances since June 8.

» READ MORE: Murphy: Phillies should wait to make a decision on Max Kepler and Justin Crawford as trade deadline approaches

Or maybe it’s all just wishful thinking, and Dombrowski will do more than browse for outfield help.

Whatever the case, it doesn’t behoove an executive to put up a “Help Wanted” sign with just under four weeks left until the trade deadline. Dombrowski, poised to oversee his 35th trade deadline since taking over as general manager of the Montreal Expos in 1989, knows this as well as anyone.

But Dombrowski did share some thoughts on the Phillies’ two most apparent needs — the bullpen and a righty-hitting outfielder — before a recent game.

Across the league, rival executives and talent evaluators anticipate the Phillies’ deadline priority will be finding late-inning help.

Is that a fair assumption?

“Well, it’s not going to be the starting rotation, and our lineup doesn’t have an abundance of places that are a hole,” Dombrowski said. “So, I think almost by process of elimination, [the bullpen] would be the area we would address most openly.”

» READ MORE: Can starters provide relief? Sizing up who could fill a need in the Phillies’ bullpen for the playoffs.

Also:

Alvarado will return in mid-August to help with the playoff push. Dombrowski also noted that an extra off-day during the division series will enable teams to use only three starters until the NL Championship Series.

The Phillies are planning to move a starter or two into the bullpen for the postseason, similar to how the Tigers used Rick Porcello in 2012 and 2013, when Dombrowski ran Detroit’s front office. Imagine if, say, lefty Jesús Luzardo could get big outs in the seventh inning.

“I do look at the bullpen [needs] differently,” Dombrowski said. “Because if we’re fortunate enough to get to the postseason, our bullpen is going to get some major additions to it because our starting pitching is very deep.”

Indeed, behind ace Zack Wheeler, the Phillies have the lefty trio of Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, and Luzardo. Aaron Nola will return eventually from a stress fracture in his right rib cage. Mick Abel had highs and lows while filling in for Nola. Taijuan Walker already went to the bullpen but will return to the rotation this week. Top prospect Andrew Painter is waiting in the triple-A wings.

» READ MORE: ‘Phillies Extra’ Q&A: Orion Kerkering on entertaining his bullpen mates, being coached by Roy Halladay, and more

Just don’t expect the Phillies to start ferrying starters to the bullpen any time soon. Porcello, for instance, didn’t actually make a relief appearance for the Tigers until the postseason.

“I don’t think you have to go do it in August,” Dombrowski said. “Now, when I say that, every pitcher’s different. Some pitchers it’s harder, because just maybe they’re not the type of guy who can get ready in 10 pitches or 12 pitches. So, you have to be cognizant that you might have to use them in a different fashion. Each and every case is different.

“But when we’ve done it in the past [with other teams], we haven’t done it until later.”

And it certainly won’t preclude the Phillies from trading for at least one late-inning arm, maybe two.

Dombrowski is aware of the chatter that the Phillies need a righty-hitting outfielder.

His response: “Where do you find them?”

“I know that some of the names are mentioned — ‘OK, why don’t you get this guy? Why don’t you get that guy?’ — well, they’re hitting like .200 or .220,“ Dombrowski said. ”A lot of the guys that were out there in the wintertime, that’s what they’re hitting, too.”

Fair point.

» READ MORE: The Phillies’ outfield production is among the majors’ worst since Bryce Harper moved. Can they fix it?

It’s also fair to second-guess a one-year, $10 million deal with Kepler, who entered the weekend batting .210 with a .705 OPS against righties and a .685 OPS overall. But you must also concede that none of the non-Juan Soto free-agent options — Anthony Santander (Blue Jays); Tyler O’Neill (Orioles); Michael Conforto (Dodgers); Jurickson Profar (Braves) — are working out, either.

And the outfielders most often associated with this trade market — Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox), Taylor Ward (Angels), Adolis García (Rangers), and Cedric Mullins (Orioles) — all come with warts.

So, maybe Dombrowski isn’t merely being cagey when he points out that Marsh “has been performing very well for us” and Kepler is “close to a 20-home run pace and playing good defense.”

The best short-term solution might be a righty-hitting part-time outfielder who mashes lefties, such as the Red Sox’ Rob Refsnyder (.942 OPS vs. lefties).

Or the Phillies could call up Justin Crawford. The 21-year-old had a .415 on-base percentage and 26 stolen bases and was leading the triple-A International League with a .340 average through Thursday.

Dombrowski cited Andrew Benintendi with the Red Sox in 2016 and Rafael Devers a year later as examples of his willingness to call up a prized prospect in the midst of a pennant race. In both cases, it happened close to the trade deadline and during a West Coast trip.

» READ MORE: Otto Kemp is the Phillies’ best option to fill a big need. That means the search likely will go on.

But Dombrowski said he has only two guidelines for knowing when to call up a young player.

“Really, it comes down more on how the player’s playing — and then the opportunity that they have,“ he said. ”You want to know that they’re going to play. You’re not going to bring up a young kid and just have them sitting on the bench. They’ve got to come up and play."

As long as Marsh and Kepler are on the roster, it’s difficult to imagine the Phillies finding at-bats for Crawford, too.

Remember the intentionally nonspecific outline given by Dombrowski in the offseason for when Painter might make his long-awaited major league debut?

Well, “July-ish” has arrived.

But Painter has achieved only mixed results in triple A. He gave up four runs on seven hits, including two doubles, in five innings Thursday night. He did throw 95 pitches and maxed out at 99.5 mph, hardly insignificant details.

Overall, Painter has a 4.57 ERA in 45⅓ triple-A innings.

“He’s been good but not great,” Dombrowski said. “That’s the way I would describe it. His velocity’s good; his pitches are good. Probably doesn’t have quite the same command as he normally has, which sometimes happens. It takes a little while to get back when you’re coming off a couple of years down. But he’s touching 100.

“And he’s healthy, which is the most important thing.”

» READ MORE: Three Phillies trades we'd like to see before the deadline

The Phillies will give Painter a breather during the All-Star break. Beyond that, they could bring the 22-year-old righty to the majors. When Nola returns, Painter could continue to start in a six-man rotation.

But if you think Painter could be a secret weapon out of the bullpen down the stretch, à la David Price in 2008 with the Rays, Dombrowski remains steadfast that it won’t happen.

“We have not discussed it,” he said, “and I don’t think we would bring him up as a bullpen guy coming off an injury.”