The Phillies are at the front of the line for bullpen shopping. How much will a ‘difference maker’ cost?

Kyle Schwarber remembers all three pitches, each nastier than the one before.

“It was 100 [mph], down and in. Strike one,” he said the other day. “Then it was 99, up and in, and I thought I was close. Took a good swing at it. So I had slider in the back of my head, like this could be a slider right here. And he goes cutter, 99, down and in, and you’re like, ‘Man, that was a fun one.’”

Schwarber chuckled.

» READ MORE: Three swings, three homers: MVP Kyle Schwarber leads NL to All-Star Game win with epic swing-off

It was neither the first time nor the last that the Phillies slugger faced Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase. But this was the ninth inning of the 2022 All-Star Game at Dodger Stadium, and Clase’s stuff was as filthy as ever.

“Yeah,” Schwarber recalled, “that was disgusting.”

Three years later, Clase’s cutter still crackles at 99 mph, the lead punch in combination with a wipeout slider. And now, it might be available to acquire. The Guardians were 46-49 at the All-Star break, and despite being only 4½ games out of a wild card, a minus-45 run differential suggested they shouldn’t be taken seriously. Fangraphs listed their playoff odds at 10.8%.

The Guardians, then, are a team of interest over the next 10 days, multiple major league sources said this week. The same goes for the Twins (playoff odds: 23%). And the Rays (36.5%). And the Cardinals (28.7%).

Because if any or all fall flat out of the All-Star break, the market could flood with late-inning relievers — Cleveland’s Clase and Cade Smith; Minnesota’s Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax; Tampa Bay’s Pete Fairbanks; St. Louis’ Ryan Helsley — before the trade deadline at 6 p.m. on July 31.

And among the contenders in both leagues, the Phillies are at the head of the line in the bullpen-shopping aisle.

“I feel like any trade that were to happen for us is more us saying that we’re trying to push and we’re trying to keep supplementing our team,“ said Schwarber, the Phillies’ lone participant in the All-Star Game this week. ”If you can get another [reliever] that’s established in what he does, I feel like that’s only a positive thing, right?”

Sure. In fact, the more Schwarber thought about it the other day in the National League clubhouse in Atlanta, the more he was reminded of 2016 with the Cubs.

» READ MORE: The Phillies need bullpen help, and there’s appealing options. But are they willing to take a big swing?

With a young core and a 108-year World Series drought that created an all-in urgency for the front office, the Cubs beat the deadline by swapping three players, including top prospect Gleyber Torres, to the retooling Yankees for closer Aroldis Chapman.

“I just kind of remember what that felt like,” Schwarber said. “I’m not saying that’s what needs to happen for us. We’re confident in what we have in our group. But if you add someone like that and you’re able to push a couple guys to an eighth and a seventh inning, man, you feel like your bullpen’s in a really good spot.”

Chapman posted a 1.01 ERA and 16 saves in 18 chances for the Cubs. He closed out the division series against the Giants and got the last five outs of the NLCS against the Dodgers. Although he blew a save in Game 7 of the World Series, the Cubs came back for the most memorable win in franchise history.

So, even though Chapman re-signed with the Yankees in the ensuing offseason and Torres turned into an All-Star in New York, every North Sider in Chicago would make that trade again and again.

Just something to think about over the next 10 or 12 days.

This year’s best version of Chapman is, well, Chapman.

At age 37, in his 16th major league season, the big lefty is still throwing gas and closing games. His sinker averages 99.8 mph; his four-seamer hums at 98.6 mph. He had a 1.18 ERA and 17 saves at the All-Star break and is eligible for free agency after the season.

But before Chapman could fill out a change-of-address form, the Red Sox reeled off 10 consecutive victories going into the break. Maybe they’ll stub their toe in the next 10 days against the Cubs, Phillies, and Dodgers. Even so, they’d struggle to explain a Chapman trade to fans who are still breathing fire over the jettisoning of Rafael Devers.

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Assuming Chapman stays put, Helsley might be the best rental closer. The Cardinals were 1½ games out of a wild card entering the weekend, but the front office expected to retool the roster this season and could try to thread the needle between buying and selling by unloading the walk-year closer for a controllable player.

Otherwise, there’s the Nationals’ Kyle Finnegan, who has an expiring contract and fits best as a setup man for a contender.

In any case, the days of trading the prospect equivalent of Torres in 2016 for a two-month closer are over, even for a team like the Phillies, whose Mona Lisa Vito core of thirtysomethings can hear its biological clock ticking.

Last July, when the Phillies sought bullpen help before the deadline, they moved midlevel pitching prospects Sam Aldegheri and George Klassen to the Angels for walk-year closer Carlos Estévez. It’s doubtful they’d ante up more than that for Helsley, Finnegan, or the Pirates’ David Bednar or Dennis Santana, both of whom are controllable through next season.

But the Phillies did discuss a deadline blockbuster last year for hard-throwing lefty Garrett Crochet, who would have been under control through 2026. The particulars aren’t known, but owner John Middleton said the Phillies would have given up “significant” talent. The likelihood, then, is Aidan Miller or Justin Crawford, or both, would have been involved.

“We made a great offer for Crochet, an incredible offer,” Middleton told Phillies Extra, The Inquirer’s baseball show. “I mean, it was almost painful to look at what we were giving up. And frankly, [president of baseball operations] Dave [Dombrowski] looked at me at one point and he said, ‘John, I’m totally ambivalent. If they take the deal, I’m happy. If they don’t take the deal, I’m happy.’ And I felt the same way.“

A year later, rival executives and evaluators are wondering if Dombrowski might push a Miller- or Crawford-shaped chip into the middle of the table for Clase or Durán, or the Orioles’ Félix Bautista, or the Athletics’ Mason Miller.

» READ MORE: Trade deadline preview: Dave Dombrowski on the Phillies’ biggest roster needs and their X-factor

Clase and Durán are 27; Bautista is 30; Miller 26. All have electric stuff, producing swing-and-miss rates that top 30% (Miller is above 40%). And like Crochet, they are under control for multiple seasons (Clase through 2026, with $10 million team options for ‘27 and ‘28; Durán and Bautista through 2027; Miller through 2029).

Middleton said Dombrowski often talks about finding “difference makers.” Clase and Durán certainly fit that description. After a rough start, Miller has a 2.00 ERA since Memorial Day. Bautista is dominating again after Tommy John elbow surgery.

But the Phillies dealt a raft of prospects for Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Hunter Pence at consecutive deadlines (2009-11), moves that Middleton said merited an “A-plus” for then-general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.

And yet, they fell short of winning the World Series.

“It’s easy to say, ‘Go out and get somebody,’ but then you have to live with the consequences,” Middleton said. “You don’t want to trade another Ryne Sandberg away just to try to complete a deal in July of 2025. That killed us for over a decade.

“At some point you just have to say enough’s enough, and we’re not just going to completely mortgage the future for today. It’s one thing if you empty the cupboard and you win. But there’s absolutely no guarantee that you’re going to win if you do that. Witness ‘09, ‘10, and ‘11. You’ve just got to be careful.”

Before last Saturday’s game in San Diego, Schwarber was catching up with Adam Wainwright, the former Cardinals pitcher who now works as an analyst on Fox broadcasts.

“I was like, back with his staff in 2015, it was guys that were 90 to 93 [mph], and then you had [Carlos] Martínez who was the 98 [mph] sinker guy,” Schwarber said. “Now it feels like the high four-seamer is trending to 98, with the big, hard curveball, power sinker, power sweeper, different sliders. It’s just constantly evolving.”

And high velocity is especially apparent in the bullpen.

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“Every time you face a team, you get into that bullpen, it’s pretty much a 100-mile-an-hour arm coming out there at you,“ Schwarber said. ”I feel like the guys who are 90 to 92 just really aren’t in the pens anymore.”

But through the All-Star break, Phillies relievers were tied for 22nd in average four-seam fastball velocity (94.1 mph). Not coincidentally, they generated the second-fewest swings and misses (592).

It hasn’t helped that big lefty José Alvarado‘s heat-seeking sinker is waylaid while he serves an 80-game suspension for failing a drug test. He’s due back in mid-August, but even so, he’s banned from the postseason.

And it was the bullpen, more than even icy-cold bats, that torpedoed the Phillies in the last two postseasons. They blew back-to-back leads in Arizona in momentum-turning Games 3 and 4 of the 2023 NLCS. And they fumbled a late lead at home in a tone-setting Game 1 of the divisional round last year against the Mets.

Dombrowski has noted that the Phillies will be able to move a starter or two into the bullpen for the playoffs because there’s no need for a five-man rotation in October. But he also reiterated that top prospect Andrew Painter isn’t an option out of the bullpen.

Any way they slice it, Dombrowski must give manager Rob Thomson more relievers whom he can trust in a postseason game. Right now, that group includes Orion Kerkering, Matt Strahm, and Tanner Banks. Jordan Romano, the offseason bullpen addition, had a 7.29 ERA at the All-Star break.

» READ MORE: ‘Phillies Extra’ Q&A: Orion Kerkering on entertaining his bullpen mates, being coached by Roy Halladay, and more

Imagine if Durán or Bautista took over the ninth inning.

Or Clase.

Schwarber doesn’t have to imagine that last scenario. The three-pitch strikeout in the ninth inning of the 2022 All-Star Game is etched in his mind.

“It was like, dang, that was good stuff,” Schwarber said. “It was fiery stuff.”

Just what the Phillies bullpen needs.